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Todayâs Summary
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Indices: Dow +0.07% | S&P 500 -0.57% | Russell 2000 -0.70% | Nasdaq -1.68%
Sectors: 6 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, rising +1.76%. Tech lagged, falling -2.62%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -1.77% to $70.38 per barrel. Gold futures inched higher by +0.08% to $2,073 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.83% to $102.22.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.77% to a new 52-week high of $44,970. Ethereum inched higher by +0.17% to $2,357.
Volatility: The Volatility Index gained +6.19% to 13.21.
Interest Rates:Â The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.941%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
#Bitcoin is in rally mode to start the new year, up 8%+ since the ball dropped to its highest level in 20 months.
I still wouldn't be surprised to see a short-term "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction to a Bitcoin ETF approval, but bulls remain clearly in control for now. pic.twitter.com/LUz6ALqEDr
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) January 2, 2024
Todayâs Chart of the Day was shared by Matt Weller (@MWellerFX). Bitcoin rose over +150% last year, making it one of the best-performing âasset classesâ in 2023. However, nobody was interested in buying Bitcoin at the beginning of last year. It entered 2023 down -75%, and the FTX scandal had just disgraced the entire crypto industry. After an impressive comeback in 2023, Matt points out that Bitcoin kicked off 2024 on a bullish note. It broke out to its highest level since April 2022 today, after consolidating for the past month. Despite the continued strength, sentiment isnât nearly as frothy as itâs been in past cycles. We could see much higher prices before FOMO takes over, and Tom Brady has laser eyes again.
Quote of the Day
âFor some reason, because of the way investor psychology works, people switch from only seeing the good to seeing only the bad.â
â Howard Marks
Top Links
VIX and S&P 500 Move Together – Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher looks at what has historically happened when the S&P 500 and the VIX began to move together.
What Will It Take to Get Bearish? – All Star Charts
JC Parets examines the bear case for stocks.
2023’s Biggest Winners in the Russell 1,000 – Bespoke
Bespoke highlights the 34 stocks in the Russell 1000 that were up more than +100% in 2023.
10 Charts That Made 2023 and a Few to Watch in 2024 – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison shares some noteworthy charts from the past year.
Top Tweets
$QQQ The Nasdaq kicks off 2024 with its worst day since October. 𩸠pic.twitter.com/qniJf0Lv30
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) January 3, 2024
EIGHT DAYS LIKE TODAY, Over the last 50 yrs, there have been 8 occasions where the Nasdaq followed a double digit year with a +0.5% loss on opening day of the next year. The following week was positive in each of those 8 cases. The two -1% cases were followed by +2% weeks. pic.twitter.com/ODJ0gTBqgj
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) January 3, 2024
Let's talk about a sensible swing trade process
Right now it looks like new low risk purchases for $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SMH will not come until next week at the earliest
When markets (or a stock we are watching) begin to pullback, we avoid new purchase while below declining 5DMA⌠pic.twitter.com/hGXNbUY1YP
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) January 2, 2024
The median annual drawdown is 11% for all years, and it's the same for election years (red boxes), so expect it. It could be just 6-8%. It's unlikely to be to more than 20% pic.twitter.com/N0wE68gocL
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) January 3, 2024
Good to remember that the avg peak-to-trough correction per yr is 14.2% (since '80) for the S&P 500.
Last yr stocks had a 10.3% correction, yet still gained more than 24%.
Take away is even strong yrs tend to see some scary moments. pic.twitter.com/dkt04n8pIc
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 2, 2024
Breakout, retest, bounce scenario in the cards for small caps?$IWM pic.twitter.com/b7WedR024k
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) January 2, 2024
$TLT – Bonds rejected at $100 level. pic.twitter.com/bQgJxcL5Y2
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) January 2, 2024
Stocks are selling off to start the year. Notice how Treasury Bonds are also selling off and NOT acting as a "safe haven". It's because they're not. Some people want to pretend they are. But math keeps proving that wrong. Stocks & Bonds are moving together. pic.twitter.com/ykXOlzCuFM
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) January 2, 2024
Back to the crime scene…and BAND the USD rings the 2024 bell! pic.twitter.com/o0sNwfyc7d
— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) January 3, 2024
After trading sideways for most of December, Bitcoin is up over 7% YTD and back above $45K. pic.twitter.com/OzLBxDkqcW
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 2, 2024
Day 1: +0.17%
Day 2: +0.41%
Day 3: +0.14%
Day 4: +0.04%
Day 5: -0.28%
Day 6: -0.57% https://t.co/BtGfAFXaHQ— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) January 2, 2024