Sponsored By:
Today’s Summary
Friday, December 30th, 2022
Indices: Nasdaq 100 -0.10% | Dow -0.22% | S&P 500 -0.25% | Russell 2000 -0.28%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 Sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +0.63%. Utilities lagged falling -0.96%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +2.37% to $80.26 per barrel. Gold futures were unchanged at $1,826 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.47% to a six-month low of $103.49.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched lower by -0.14% to $16,604. Ethereum inched lower by -0.07% to $1,199.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.880%.
**Reminder: the markets will be closed on Monday, January 2nd, 2023.**
Happy New Year!
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
More signs of momentum divergences suggesting mean reversion in styles. Growth to value ratio with a big one in favor of growth. These have been prescient over the past 3 years pic.twitter.com/TfbnRDbHaH
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) December 30, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Scott Brown (@scottcharts). The S&P 500 ended the year down 19.44%, marking its worst year since 2008. In fact, it was 3x worse than any year since 2008. We began the year on a strong note, with the S&P hitting its last & only all-time high on the first trading day of the year, but it was downhill from there. One of the themes that defined 2022 was the rotation out of Growth Stocks and into Value Stocks. The sexy Growth/Tech Stocks got clobbered, while boring old Value Stocks fared much better. It all started at the beginning of the year when this ratio failed at its 2020 highs. The ratio ended the year today near two-year lows, with Growth (IWF) underperforming Value (IWD) by more than 22%. Looking ahead, Scott points out that we could see Growth rebound relative to Value in the near term, with momentum diverging positively. However, this ratio is going to need more than just mean reversion to repair the damage that took place in 2022.
Quote of the Day
“Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man.”
– Benjamin Franklin
Top Links
Let’s Look at Stocks Down Two Years in a Row – Carson Group
With the S&P 500 having its first down year since 2018, Ryan Detrick examines the probability of back-to-back annual losses.
Looking Back at the Biggest Rotation of 2022 – StockCharts.com
Julius de Kempenaer looks at one of the defining themes of 2022 – the rotation from Growth to Value.
2023 Stock Market Outlook – The Weekly Grind
Sam McCallum highlights some key charts to watch in the new year.
2022 Stock Market is In The Books and it was UGLY – AlphaTrends
In this video, Brian Shannon analyzes recent price action and lays out some key levels to watch in the new year.
The Gold Report – All Star Charts
The team at All Star Charts takes a deep look at Precious Metals and explains why Gold could go to $5,000/oz sooner than most think.
Top Tweets
Santa Claus Rally (SCR)
Day 1: +0.59%
Day 2: -0.40%
Day 3: -1.20%
Day 4: +1.75%
Day 5: -0.25%
——————-
Cumulative: +0.45%
((3832.49-3822.38)/3822.38))2 more trading days to go!
— David Zarling, CMT (@AdaptivCharts) December 30, 2022
2022 Market Mood: Wildly Mixed
1. Stocks in bear mkts of -20 to -40%
2. Bonds -14% & worst yr since 1999
3. Commodities +14%
4. AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA down >50%
5. OXY +117%, NOC +41%, LVS +28%, GIS +24%Dollar +6.2% but off +15% high, its direction may be 2023 risk asset key.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) December 30, 2022
Final heat map of the S&P 500's performance in 2022 pic.twitter.com/j8HwSKSO1a
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) December 30, 2022
$SPY avoids -20% YTD close by $0.47 — there goes a beautiful headline pic.twitter.com/zWg7bo8QAf
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) December 30, 2022
We had 4th-biggest annual decline in $SPX since it became 500-stock index in '57. The other 3? '74, '02 & '08. $SPX finished BELOW 200-wk SMA by 30.75% in 2008, 28.8% in 2002 and 31.06% in 1974. This year? $SPX closed ABOVE 200-wk SMA by 4.67%. Still think we're in bear market? pic.twitter.com/FQCXN4XddD
— David Settle, CMT (@davidsettle42) December 30, 2022
Weekly $SPX update: for many investors, 2022 will be a year to forget. Closing the year with 4 straight weekly losses seems about right. Here's to some new trends in 2023! ? pic.twitter.com/vZjpfSCrfi
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) December 30, 2022
Holy sideways for the #SPX. Unable to get above the 10 day ema. Tough spot as we enter new year.
Not a Recommendation pic.twitter.com/UojQO9XIuK
— James Boyd (@JBoyd_TDA) December 30, 2022
Small, multi day range building out below this 3900-3920 area. And we still have 7 months of going lots of places, but also going essentially nowhere…$SPX $SPY $ES_F pic.twitter.com/IwoZOn1EpA
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) December 30, 2022
A 24-year look at the weekly Nasdaq shows that the index has only turned the 200d/40wk ma noticeably down three times.
2000-2003
2008-2009
2022-It took more than a year to turn it back up after 2008 and 2+ years in 2000.
What's in store for 2023?#patience pic.twitter.com/jGj05i2J8h
— Chris Perruna (@cperruna) December 30, 2022
after a 48% gain last year, energy surged another 59% in 2022 — a year when every other sector fell pic.twitter.com/fNTcLU20qG
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) December 30, 2022
Value stocks down just 2% in 2022. Outpacing growth by a staggering 4652 basis points 🙂 $VTV $VUG pic.twitter.com/WGx7bOHPCs
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) December 30, 2022
XLC. We all see this, right? pic.twitter.com/GU2FNInkS6
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) December 30, 2022
Take your eyes off the choppy market cap weighted averages which are influenced wayyyyy too much by mega cap tech. $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN
Instead consider watch the US Dollar chart instead. It's the key to stocks. $DXY $UUP pic.twitter.com/Xtga6EB771
— Sam McCallum (@Honeystocks1) December 30, 2022
7-month low in the US #Dollar. Not a peep from TV talking heads. Interesting when a move doesn't fit the narrative- how it gets lost in the shuffle. Curated news is not news, IMO.
103.31– we are 10% lower than the September 20-year high at 114.75. pic.twitter.com/IHHe4ID4uw— Chris Robinson (@cer_hedge) December 30, 2022
Yeah 60/40 was bad this year….but look at this table from @RayDalio oof… https://t.co/KeObOQ9me6
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) December 30, 2022
Dave Portnoy was picking stocks using a scrabble bag
JPEGs were selling for millions
WallStreetBets was retiring after a year of trading options
We deserved everything we got in 2022
— Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. (@ParikPatelCFA) December 30, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!