Daily Chart Report ? Monday, May 3rd, 2021

$SPX

First half of the month vs. second half of the month certainly has that Jekyll & Hyde feel to it so far in 2021...

1/1 - 1/16 +2.04%
1/17 - 1/31 -0.06%

2/1 - 2/14 +4.21%
2/15 - 2/28 -0.78%

3/1 - 3/16 +1.56%
3/17 - 3/31 -0.04%

4/1 - 4/15 +3.75%
4/16 - 4/30 +0.26%

— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) May 3, 2021

Bifurcated market today.

Value > Growth pic.twitter.com/OiyVozczWZ

— Brandon Van Zee (@BrandonVanZee) May 3, 2021

The next six months are indeed the worst possible 6 month combo for the S&P 500, up 1.7% on average.

But did you know when the S&P 500 is >5% in May (like '21) then the next six months are up 6.2% on average? pic.twitter.com/BKMDBlUaMK

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 2, 2021

S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 0.4% in the month of May with 70% of periods closing higher over the past 20 years. https://t.co/ZAa7hC9MuD $SPX $SPY $ES_F $STUDY pic.twitter.com/79MFbopjrF

— Equity Clock (@EquityClock) May 3, 2021

Still not much love for #SPACs over past couple months … in general, those with no deals have moved sideways & those with deals announced are in bear market territory
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/aukCxm2Oxn

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) May 3, 2021

"Aspirational Tech" - i.e., recent IPO's - remain on the relative low list. The Software rally also tepid, and Semis haven't made a new high in 10 weeks... but the Fed! and Earnings! and chip shortage! When things don't work out as they should, pay attention. pic.twitter.com/b1ChwKscHr

— Chris Verrone (@verrone_chris) May 3, 2021

Notice how the semis ran out of steam just when the 'shortage' went mainstream? $SMH $SOX pic.twitter.com/hvncjjfJX8

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) May 3, 2021

"If you want to outperform the $SPX, you have own things that are outperforming the $SPX."
Today's example: real estate $XLRE pic.twitter.com/yqGSvynMX4

— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) May 3, 2021

A chart to keep an 👀 on is the 10 yr. treasury yield as it sits on the 50 day moving average.

The 10 yr. yield broke above the 50 day in August '20 and has been in a persistent uptrend since.

Today the 10 yr. is 1.60%, 50 day moving average 1.59%. Cutting it close. @FactSet. pic.twitter.com/GwJutAQge6

— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) May 3, 2021

The Bloomberg Commodities Index returned 15.78% year-to-date.

With data going back to 1973, this marks commodities’ best total return through the first four months of any year on record. pic.twitter.com/BKTsjqeWLm

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) May 3, 2021

Chart from last night's Thrasher Analytics letter.

Commodities. pic.twitter.com/RbZZv891yn

— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) May 3, 2021

what the bond market thinks about inflation pic.twitter.com/fDcMDiY7c3

— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) May 3, 2021

So everyone's like... crazy long.

🐂 5-day Equity Put/Call at 0.484
🐂 NAAIM Exposure over 100 (103.72)
🐂 Rydex Asset Ratio at 0.08

I'm an optimistic guy, but... 😳 pic.twitter.com/VjoHbmIyT4

— Grayson Roze (@GraysonRoze) May 3, 2021