Chart of the Day - Thursday, July 28th, 2022

Today’s Chart of the Day was shared in a note by Callie Cox of eToro (@callieabost). Everybody including the President, Cardi B, and your Uncle is confused over whether we're in a recession or not, but does it really matter at this point? Callie reminds us that the stock market is usually a few steps ahead of the economic data. On average, The S&P 500 peaks 6-months before the start of a recession, and it bottoms about 3-months before the end of a recession. It's played out pretty similarly this cycle considering, the S&P 500 peaked on the first trading day of the year, and here we are 7-months later. Recession or not, today's GDP print just confirms what the S&P 500 has been saying for months. Nobody knows if the S&P 500 has bottomed yet, but it will likely do so before the economic data and headlines improve.