Chart of the Day - Wednesday, August 17th, 2022

Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer). It's a chart of the S&P 500 throughout 1962. The S&P 500 is up 17% since the June low, and everyone wants to know; is this a bear market rally, or the start of a new bull market? Walter points out that the answer isn't always so black and white. This year has played out very similarly to 1962 so far. The S&P 500 peaked around the beginning of that year (two weeks before it started), then slid 28%, and ultimately bottomed in June... Sound familiar? It then rallied 14% off those June lows, but it rolled over at the end of August and gave back nearly all of its Summer rally. It would've been silly to call that 14% Summer rally 'the start of a new bull market' considering it went back to retest the June lows in October. At the same time, it would've been silly to call it a 'bear market rally' considering it didn't quite make a new low. This isn't saying 2022 will play out exactly like 1962, but it's an important scenario to consider as we figure out what to call the recent rally. As Walter points out, it's really all just semantics.