Daily Chart Report 📈 Monday, October 2, 2023

October 2, 2023

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Today’s Summary
Monday, October 2, 2023

Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.83% | S&P 500 +0.01% | Dow -0.22% | Russell 2000 -1.58%

Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Tech led, rising +1.07%. Utilities had their worst day in over three years, tumbling -4.65%.

Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -2.17% to $88.82 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -1.01% to a six-month low of $1,847 per oz.

Currencies: The US Dollar Index had its best day since March, rising +0.81% to $107.03.

Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.74% to $27,507. Ethereum dropped -3.99% to $1,663.

Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +0.51% to 17.60.

Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a new multi-year high of 4.681%.

Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!

Chart of the Day

$XLU worst day since around the COVID crash pic.twitter.com/GnY7eawg51
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 2, 2023

Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Mike Zaccardi (@MikeZaccardi). The Utilities sector ($XLU) tumbled -4.65% today, marking its worst day since the depths of Covid. It closed at a three-year low on an absolute basis today and an all-time low on a relative basis ($XLU/$SPY). Rising yields are primarily to blame. Utility stocks have bond-like characteristics in that they're regarded as stable and often pay a nice dividend. But, for the first time in a while, Treasury Bonds yield more than Utility stocks, making the latter relatively unattractive. The logic is, "Why settle for a 3.7% dividend in $XLU when you could collect a 4.6% yield in a 10-year Treasury note?" Relative weakness from this defensive sector is often perceived as "risk-on" for the broader market. However, it feels like Utilities are sending more of a "risk-off" message right now.

Quote of the Day

"Headlines, in a way, are what mislead you because bad news is a headline, and gradual improvement is not."

– Bill Gates

Top Tweets

Seems like a pretty do or die spot. 👀🍿 $SPY $IWM pic.twitter.com/cH4uzSkdt0
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) October 2, 2023

Here is the October seasonality for the S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/ZMiRME5BY0
— Alfonso De Pablos, CMT (@AlfCharts) October 2, 2023

Is October really the month when market bottoms are made?

On a relative basis, yes.

Since 1945, number of times a 5%+ S&P pullback has ended by month:

Jan: 12
Feb: 16
Mar: 23
Apr: 13
May: 18
Jun: 15
Jul: 17
Aug: 20
Sep: 23
Oct: 33
Nov: 22
Dec: 17 pic.twitter.com/Po9TleMtua
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 2, 2023

SP 500 EW now down on the year. pic.twitter.com/zHal0FYhtn
— Tobias Carlisle (@Greenbackd) October 2, 2023

Intact pattern of lower highs and lower lows as micro-caps look at lowest daily close since Nov 2020. $IWC pic.twitter.com/qEYZSA3vNX
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) October 2, 2023

On intraday basis, S&P 500 Utilities sector is plunging and has wiped out all gains since June 2020
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/lL4GD07J7o
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 2, 2023

Sorry, not sorry $XLU pic.twitter.com/pPFuUN6hK9
— Michael Kahn, CMT (@mnkahn) October 2, 2023

all the attn on $XLU and the Utility breakdown...

but what about $XBI Biotech, Solar $TAN, and Clean Energy $PBW ?

I would not leave them out of the super weak / breakdown conversation... pic.twitter.com/92yODoDvqV
— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) October 2, 2023

Crude Oil finding some resistance at a prior key price level which had been support in early '22 and resistance in Q4 '22 pic.twitter.com/6WhXZtyu2F
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) October 2, 2023

The $DXY Dollar Index has put in for its biggest single-day rally in six months...as it pushes towards a 10 month high close.

Next technical overhead is the midpoint of the 2022 high (multidecade) to this year's low in July (at ~107.15) pic.twitter.com/3EzHpvnrkr
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) October 2, 2023

The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.70% today, and the 2y10y spread is back to where it was in March 2023 during the regional bank crisis. Unlike then, however, econ consensus is for a resilient economy, not recession. Is 4.80% next? pic.twitter.com/pK1QY5LAPQ
— Liz Young Thomas (@LizThomasStrat) October 2, 2023

Bofa has a chart of rates going back to **3000 B.C.**

Says rates are coming off "5000-year lows" pic.twitter.com/46vP2u1bCF
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) October 2, 2023

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Daily Chart Report 📈 Monday, October 2, 2023

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