Daily Chart Report 📈 Thursday, October 5, 2023

$SPX $XLY $XLP

I dont know you BUT the ratio of consumer discretionary to consumer staples (XLY to XLP in red) is calling the bluff of the S&P500 pullback (SPY in blue). pic.twitter.com/nOL8d98Vci

— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) October 5, 2023

I'm still seeing it like this.

🔹Upward sloping 200 DMA.
🔹Trading atop of well tested S/R zone.

What's not to like? $SPX $NDX pic.twitter.com/5Y7SxD3Bav

— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) October 5, 2023

Fact:$SPX Breaking a steep downtrend line has led to strong bounces since the start of '22. pic.twitter.com/w9bN2CK3SE

— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) October 5, 2023

Early October and Dow Industrials, S&P 500 EW, Small-Caps, and Value Line Geometric Index are all down YTD.

S&P 500 is the outlier.

Heckuva "bull market" we are having. pic.twitter.com/rHyWkHkVDK

— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) October 5, 2023

The median stock is closing in on fresh 52-wk lows... here's the Value Line $VLG trading at its lowest level since last October pic.twitter.com/DdlrbTwXWS

— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) October 5, 2023

On avg $SPX gains almost 1% in October but historically it has been the most volatile. The Box & Whisker seasonality chart shows the max 16.3% (1974) and min -21.8%(1997) with a standard deviation of 5.5: pic.twitter.com/eoK5JZLzYL

— Optuma (@Optuma) October 5, 2023

Consumer Staples had its worst day since January today. Relative to the S&P 500, Staples are at 52-week lows and have lagged the broad index by 12% over the past year.

Read more in tonight's Closer: https://t.co/qsMBmciANn pic.twitter.com/pCf4aOQhXP

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 5, 2023

$KO Talk about Consumer Staples taking a hit....

Coca-Cola at support - look at that rounded top! pic.twitter.com/7kboevMPRe

— Dash, CMT, CFP (@Dash_charts) October 5, 2023

Is that a dollar reversal? $UUP pic.twitter.com/bRXSqZaKQV

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 5, 2023

Crude Oil is approaching an important level... #oil #commodities $CL_F pic.twitter.com/KfWHK78n8S

— Conor White, CMT, CIM (@ConorWhiteCMT) October 5, 2023

Natural Gas is trading above $3, a key level of resistance during the bulk of 2023.
A close above this level could show pot'l for a durable breakout.$NG_F pic.twitter.com/T1KoTXEYhK

— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) October 5, 2023

#Natgas seeing follow-through after breaking out above key resistance at $3. Inventories below expectations per EIA, while heating demand, global exports, and power generation use climb (not to mention declining rig counts). Next resistance sets up at the '21 lows near $3.53 pic.twitter.com/SwOwmriNsj

— Adam Turnquist, CMT (@adam_turnquist) October 5, 2023

Getting close again.

Let's say the curve (or at least your 'curve' of choice) does snap. What does that mean?

Could be a fake out, a la 1996 and 1998.

OR

It could be a slow disaster, like 2001 and 2007.

OR

It could be a fast crash, such as 2020

OR

Nothing happens… pic.twitter.com/rVO1kOpaZF

— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) October 5, 2023

While it’s true that the yield curve has de-inverted since late June, an equity-unfriendly bull steepener requires that declining short-term yields outpace declining long-term yields. Such a regime is definitionally challenged at present. pic.twitter.com/J7IjEhD3RZ

— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) October 5, 2023

Bad news if you're sick of watching yields:

The 10-year yield has moved an average of 11 basis points (0.11%) on jobs days this year, making it the most volatile data release since Fed days in 2009

(and the next jobs day is tomorrow 🎢) pic.twitter.com/l3nmLePZzf

— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 5, 2023