Daily Chart Report 📈 Thursday, October 19, 2023

Trading volumes in $TLT today set a record, breaking the March 6, 2020 pandemic peak. pic.twitter.com/dDnWgPmS7i

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 19, 2023

Daily Mkt Mood: Risk-Off/Mixed

1. Bearish reversal
2. Stocks drop for second day
3. $VIX at 21 just like that
4. Yields mainly up
5. Oil up

Traders went w/ hawkish set of comments from Powell, believing more tightening could be ahead.$VIX finally wakes up and takes notice!

— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) October 19, 2023

$VIX > 21, highest close since Mar pic.twitter.com/rXG99wFQD8

— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) October 19, 2023

Another angle to consider?

The third year of a new President tends to see strength the first half of the year (check), then chop into Thanksgiving (so far a check) and then a strong rally into the election year. pic.twitter.com/z1F4sIYPZJ

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 19, 2023

Just 34.5% of S&P 500 stocks closed above their 200-day moving averages today; the lowest reading since November 3rd of last year.

Here's a historical look at this reading. Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/F0YhViOTXF

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 19, 2023

10-Year Yields vs S&P 500 Breadth (% of stocks above their 200-day inverted)

Under the surface, rising rates have hollowed out market breadth.

No Q4 rally w/o improving breadth.

No broadening w/o rates chilling out. pic.twitter.com/1Iks7u5GqL

— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) October 19, 2023

$IWM fresh 52-week closing low.

-15% from its July high. pic.twitter.com/BLrNI9iLq9

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 19, 2023

Talk about a group that's gotten crushed by the macro environment.

Small caps — the victim of both rising rates and slowing growth — are trailing the S&P 500 by 14 percentage pts this year, heading for the worst year vs. large since 1998 pic.twitter.com/UQy4fy3ype

— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 19, 2023

HOLD THE LINE! The European Bank Index is testing its uptrend at the 200 DMA, which has worked like a charm this year. Failure to hold the line will be lights out, suggesting that its ABC correction is about to start its final leg lower, much lower. #technicalanalysis… pic.twitter.com/kX78bY80y1

— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) October 19, 2023

$SPX is testing its bullish support (i.e., positive trend) line today and for the second time this month. A reversal back up into Xs at 4360 would look nice, especially given that it would initiate a shakeout pattern. pic.twitter.com/FJ44I0oxQg

— Nasdaq Dorsey Wright (@DorseyWrightNDW) October 19, 2023

#Gold, also known as "Bullion" or "Boomer Bitcoin", is rallying another 1.3% today.

It's now up over 8% in 2 weeks. pic.twitter.com/c6vIIu1ej1

— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) October 19, 2023

And yet ANOTHER opportunity to invoke:
Jay’s Trading Maxim #37: Recognizing the trend right now is worth far more than a thousand predictions regarding what will happen next. pic.twitter.com/XVnPunRJ6Q

— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) October 19, 2023

Tale of two markets. $ES_F https://t.co/ywlgiysSRs pic.twitter.com/J2OmHgEPuE

— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) October 19, 2023

With Treasury yields moving past Bernanke-era levels, maybe this needs another look: pic.twitter.com/XCYraRBbFT

— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) October 19, 2023