Daily Chart Report 📈 Thursday, October 19, 2023

October 19, 2023

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Today’s Summary
Thursday, October 19, 2023

Indices: Dow -0.75% | S&P 500 -0.85% | Nasdaq -0.85% | Russell 2000 -1.51%

Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Communications led but still inched lower by -0.10%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, dropping -2.56%.

Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.26% to $88.37 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.62% to $1,981 per oz.

Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.31% $106.24.

Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.22% to $28,675. Ethereum was flat at $1,565.

Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +11.41% to a seven-month high of 21.40.

Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a new multi-year high of 4.992%.

Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!

Chart of the Day

Trading volumes in $TLT today set a record, breaking the March 6, 2020 pandemic peak. pic.twitter.com/dDnWgPmS7i
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 19, 2023

Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by ForexLive (@ForexLive). Bonds continue to fall off a cliff, with the +20-Year Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) dropping to its lowest since 2007. Another -3% lower would mark an all-time low for $TLT. ForexLive points out that volume set a new record today, with $TLT trading more than 87 million shares. The previous record was set on the day of the all-time high in 2020. Volume spikes often indicate capitulation. However, you never really know when enough is enough. You're better off sticking with the trend, which remains unequivocally lower.

Quote of the Day

“People worry about the riskiness of stocks, but bonds can be just as risky.”

– Peter Lynch

Trendlines > Headlines

-XA7gELM

The latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines is out!

This week, Jeff Hirsch of The Stock Traders Almanac joins us to discuss Seasonality, the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Crypto, and more!

Top Tweets

Daily Mkt Mood: Risk-Off/Mixed

1. Bearish reversal
2. Stocks drop for second day
3. $VIX at 21 just like that
4. Yields mainly up
5. Oil up

Traders went w/ hawkish set of comments from Powell, believing more tightening could be ahead.$VIX finally wakes up and takes notice!
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) October 19, 2023

$VIX > 21, highest close since Mar pic.twitter.com/rXG99wFQD8
— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) October 19, 2023

Another angle to consider?

The third year of a new President tends to see strength the first half of the year (check), then chop into Thanksgiving (so far a check) and then a strong rally into the election year. pic.twitter.com/z1F4sIYPZJ
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 19, 2023

Just 34.5% of S&P 500 stocks closed above their 200-day moving averages today; the lowest reading since November 3rd of last year.

Here's a historical look at this reading. Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/F0YhViOTXF
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 19, 2023

10-Year Yields vs S&P 500 Breadth (% of stocks above their 200-day inverted)

Under the surface, rising rates have hollowed out market breadth.

No Q4 rally w/o improving breadth.

No broadening w/o rates chilling out. pic.twitter.com/1Iks7u5GqL
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) October 19, 2023

$IWM fresh 52-week closing low.

-15% from its July high. pic.twitter.com/BLrNI9iLq9
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 19, 2023

Talk about a group that's gotten crushed by the macro environment.

Small caps — the victim of both rising rates and slowing growth — are trailing the S&P 500 by 14 percentage pts this year, heading for the worst year vs. large since 1998 pic.twitter.com/UQy4fy3ype
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 19, 2023

HOLD THE LINE! The European Bank Index is testing its uptrend at the 200 DMA, which has worked like a charm this year. Failure to hold the line will be lights out, suggesting that its ABC correction is about to start its final leg lower, much lower. #technicalanalysis… pic.twitter.com/kX78bY80y1
— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) October 19, 2023

$SPX is testing its bullish support (i.e., positive trend) line today and for the second time this month. A reversal back up into Xs at 4360 would look nice, especially given that it would initiate a shakeout pattern. pic.twitter.com/FJ44I0oxQg
— Nasdaq Dorsey Wright (@DorseyWrightNDW) October 19, 2023

#Gold, also known as "Bullion" or "Boomer Bitcoin", is rallying another 1.3% today.

It's now up over 8% in 2 weeks. pic.twitter.com/c6vIIu1ej1
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) October 19, 2023

And yet ANOTHER opportunity to invoke:
Jay’s Trading Maxim #37: Recognizing the trend right now is worth far more than a thousand predictions regarding what will happen next. pic.twitter.com/XVnPunRJ6Q
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) October 19, 2023

Tale of two markets. $ES_F https://t.co/ywlgiysSRs pic.twitter.com/J2OmHgEPuE
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) October 19, 2023

With Treasury yields moving past Bernanke-era levels, maybe this needs another look: pic.twitter.com/XCYraRBbFT
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) October 19, 2023

You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!

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