Daily Chart Report 📈 Monday, December 18, 2023

"But AAII net bulls hit an extreme high! That's contrarian bearish."

Response:
1) Smooth out the data
2) Even when the smoothed data hits an extreme, market peak may not occur until months/quarters later (eg. '11, '15, '21)$SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/SPoPostnQU

— Brian G (@alphacharts) December 18, 2023

S&P 500 RSI jumps above 80 for the first time in more than 3 years and has now reached its most overbought level since September 2020 pic.twitter.com/M64GymhsYN

— Barchart (@Barchart) December 18, 2023

S&P 500 up 7 weeks in a row.

On the surface, one might think this is bearish.

Not true, as these tend to happen in bull markets.

Up a yr later? 25 out of 29 times (86.2%). pic.twitter.com/qVE9vjnsAX

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 18, 2023

Druckenmiller (2018)
"The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know".

Recent 52-week highs in key cyclical industries:
Home construction $ITB
Small caps $IWM
Steel $SLX
Semis $SMH pic.twitter.com/2axaoHBASP

— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@bluechipdaily) December 18, 2023

I was promised a crisis pic.twitter.com/ezENmUjm8Y

— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) December 18, 2023

Last week there were seven sectors with 90%+ of stocks above their 50-DMAs, with Real Estate, Utilities, and Financials having the highest readings. pic.twitter.com/XM0g3tRLid

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 18, 2023

The weirdest-looking bull in decades...possibly ever.

The S&P 500 is up 23% this year, yet 71% of stocks are underperforming the index (the biggest % since at least 2000) pic.twitter.com/SZNk8aMi69

— Callie Cox (@callieabost) December 18, 2023

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index is near its all-time high and round-tripped from range lows to range highs in only seven weeks. And 90% of the index is above its 50-day moving average. These are strong breadth numbers, but they can often occur at short-term trading highs. pic.twitter.com/ZWu7anl3AK

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2023

anyone else notice that steel stocks went out at 12-year highs? $SLX pic.twitter.com/zg2isHaJbW

— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) December 18, 2023

Bonds appear to have entered a secular bear market. Even in the inflationary 1960s & 70s, however, UST10Y commonly reverted to its rising 200wma. From this perspective, a countertrend move could run much further than expected. Perhaps toward 3% or lower in 2024. pic.twitter.com/UEpSzPMbqO

— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) December 18, 2023

#Bitcoin Potential breakout coming w/ today's outside bar forming. $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/Yn26XRcYQz

— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) December 18, 2023