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Todayās Summary
Friday, July 7, 2023
Indices:Ā Russell 2000Ā +1.22%Ā |Ā S&P 500Ā -0.29%Ā | Nasdaq 100Ā -0.35%Ā |Ā DowĀ -0.55%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led by a wide margin, gainingĀ +2.15%. Consumer Staples lagged, droppingĀ -1.30%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures roseĀ +2.87%Ā to $73.86 per barrel. Gold futures gainedĀ +0.89%Ā to $1,933 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index droppedĀ -0.82%Ā toĀ $102.27.
Crypto: Bitcoin roseĀ +1.46%Ā to $30,348. Ethereum gainedĀ +1.26%Ā to $1,871.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to an eight-month high of 4.070%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Small Cap Energy holding up much better than their Large Cap peers…$PSCE $XLE pic.twitter.com/jYfZnu0Q7w
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) July 7, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Ian McMillan (@the_chart_life).Ā Energy continues to be the weakest sector year-to-date after outperforming by a mile last year. However, the sector led by a notable margin on Friday asĀ Crude Oil broke out from its recent downtrend. Ian points out that Small Cap Energy Stocks ($PSCE) are holding up better than their Large Cap peers ($XLE). Not only is $PSCE outperforming $XLE year-to-date, itās also above its June highs, while $XLE remains below its June highs. Small Cap underperformance has been a big theme in the broader market this year, but itās not evident in the Energy sector.Ā This is bullish for the entire sector as it demonstrates risk appetite for Energy stocks.
Quote of the Day
āWhat good is the warmth of summer without the cold of winter to give it sweetness.ā
– Henry David Thoreau
Top Links
Correlation Comparisons – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist looks at years that were similar to the first half of 2023 for the S&P 500.
Stellar NASDAQ 1st Half Dampens July and Q3 Performance – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how the Nasdaq has historically performed after gaining 20% or more in the first half of the year.
Stock Market Analysis July 7, 2023 – AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon breaks down this week’s price action and highlights a few levels of interest to watch next week.
July Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways – All Star Charts
The team at All Star Charts highlights three themes to watch in the coming weeks.
Are Gold (GLD) and Silver (SLV) Poised for a Rebound? – StockCharts.com
Karl Montevirgen examines the outlook for precious metals.
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Top Tweets
Weekly $SPX update: a small pullback this week as yields jumped and held after jobs data. Considering what stocks would have done last year in similar circumstances, we'll call it a nothingburger. pic.twitter.com/u9bU3lO5bn
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) July 7, 2023
So you're overweight bonds and underweight stocks?
Be aware that stocks relative to bonds made another new all-time high this week.
No one knows when this will stop, but until it does, OW stocks makes a lot of sense to @CarsonResearch. pic.twitter.com/GTLI0sxBET
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 7, 2023
According to ā¦@AAIISentimentā©, June stock allocation rose to 66%, a 13m high ā¦ bond allocation fell below its 15.9% historical average for 28th consecutive month pic.twitter.com/leXeBfNDtg
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 7, 2023
-8% max drawdown for SPY during the first half. 33% of the time this can mark the steepest of the year (vs. an avg of -14%)ā¦ important number to keep in mind for 2H ā23. pic.twitter.com/NVohrE0rCa
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) July 7, 2023
Since early February, the S&P 500 is up 6% & the median stock in the index is down 3%.
But the tide could be turning.
In June, the median stock posted its best gain since October and outperformed the index for the first time in five months. pic.twitter.com/K6vW6i9dM5
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) July 7, 2023
Energy stocks waking up in a major way.$OIH pic.twitter.com/zidWtuPBrS
— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades) July 7, 2023
Sneaky upside BO on Crude (daily line chart). pic.twitter.com/e1kXV1ur4O
— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) July 7, 2023
$GOLD prices. pic.twitter.com/KjIefWOg12
— David Nicoski CMT (@davevermilion) July 7, 2023
Do you have $DXY breaking below 101 on your Summer 2023 bingo card?
Maybe you should check… pic.twitter.com/3iouRqb0me— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) July 7, 2023
Not a good look for bonds heading into the weekend… $TLT pic.twitter.com/xwDG1UQTo3
— Conor White, CMT, CIM (@ConorWhiteRJ) July 7, 2023
Fitting end to the week.
Have a good one.$ES_F pic.twitter.com/rRfZKTa4eG
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMTš§ (@FusionptCapital) July 7, 2023