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Todayās Summary
Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Indices:Ā DowĀ -0.98%Ā |Ā Russell 2000Ā -1.37%Ā | S&P 500Ā -1.38%Ā | NasdaqĀ -2.21%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Staples led, risingĀ +0.36%. Tech lagged, droppingĀ -2.47%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures droppedĀ -2.31%Ā to $79.49 per barrel. Gold futures fellĀ -0.19%Ā to $1,975 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gainedĀ +0.62%Ā to $102.60.
Crypto: Bitcoin droppedĀ -1.93%Ā to $29,124. Ethereum fellĀ -1.85%Ā to $1,838.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to anĀ eight-month high of 4.084%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SPX S&P 500 Index, daily line chart highlighting important price levels over the trailing 12-months. Is it Fitch or overhead supply? pic.twitter.com/08etMEaAmG
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) August 2, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Shane Murphy (@murphycharts). Many are blaming the newfound weakness on the US debt downgrade. However, this is happening at a very logical level of overhead supply. Shane points out that the S&P 500 is being rejected at resistance from the March 2022 highs, around 4,600. The next major support level isĀ -4%Ā lower from here, at the August highs (around 4,300). You can blame the US debt downgrade if you really need a reason to justify a slight pullback. However, this is a well-deserved break for the S&P 500 after sprinting higher all Summer. As our friend Todd Sohn once said,Ā “If you run a four-minute mile, you’re gonna need a breather!”
Quote of the Day
“Pullbacks allow you to determine whether your stock is a tennis ball or an egg.”
– Mark Minervini
Top Links
Weakness Under the Surface – CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri highlights several key developments to watch in the near term.
Stock Market Analysis August 2, 2023 – AlphaTrends
In this quick video, Brian Shannon explains why the market isĀ “guilty until proven innocent”Ā in the near term.
August Technical Market Outlook – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison shares his outlook for stocks in August.
Did a Bearish Signal Really Sounds Last Week? – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White takes a closer look at the bearish outside reversal from last Thursday.
Downgrades Overlooked – Bespoke
Bespoke looks at the last time that US debt was downgraded in 2011.
Top Tweets
$SPX worst day since late April pic.twitter.com/NWvyLHs0Bc
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) August 2, 2023
First 1% decline after more than two months without one for the S&P 500? Just happened today, how much should we worry?
Doesn't look like you should worry too much.
Since 1980, one year later higher 26 out of 27 times and up 14.8% on avg. pic.twitter.com/Zxb2XaYmcP
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 2, 2023
The first step for a true character change isnāt a negative reversal or a big down day, itās if any of that can result in a downside target being hit.
From a VERY short-term viewpoint, hereās what would need to happen next. pic.twitter.com/yASArWaB9e
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) August 2, 2023
Since May $SPY has tested its 21MA 3 other times and held, the only difference now is that there are even more $SPY stocks above their 200ma pic.twitter.com/lt6GrAguQ7
— Stacey.A.Lee (@BBaxter2020) August 2, 2023
#RTY_F, 1d
3 rejections at the 2000 level. pic.twitter.com/nyYFVf5oZ8
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) August 2, 2023
A shift in sentiment appears underway with the Fitch downgrade today, bringing the Fear & Greed Index decisively below 75% after having reached "overly bullish" extremes #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/MwDjeJjxQR
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) August 2, 2023
Crude oil taking a breather along with most everything else today.
But look where it topped out. The same place it did three other times since December of last year.#oil #OOTT $USO $CL_F pic.twitter.com/XibS9qn1m5
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) August 2, 2023
Gasoline futures on the verge of a major trend reversal. Above 2.84, the bias is to the upside. pic.twitter.com/pnkkDyOCOS
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) August 2, 2023
I would not sell short a market going straight up as unleaded gas is right now (learned that lesson the painful way). Could it keep going? Absolutely! But history suggests otherwise. Waiting (patiently?) for signs of a reversal before doing anything. @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/MFLge0XilO
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) August 2, 2023
I'm not going to bet that the US Dollar rallying above the 1H lows, and stocks going up, is something that will happen at the same time pic.twitter.com/N8CfTtQRzm
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) August 2, 2023
$TNX > 4.10 creating headwinds for many sectors. pic.twitter.com/tdFL5rZRoh
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) August 2, 2023
very very random…$TYX $TLT pic.twitter.com/wT69GTE4S1
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) August 2, 2023
Bitcoin #seasonality in the last 12 years shows August to be the smallest average gain, in front of September, which has been weak… pic.twitter.com/YjHJsxshWG
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) August 2, 2023
Bulls just got fitch-slapped.
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) August 2, 2023