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Today’s Summary
Thursday, September 28, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.87% | Nasdaq +0.84% | S&P 500 +0.59% | Dow +0.35%
Sectors: 10 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, rising +1.12%. Utilities lagged by a wide margin, dropping -2.16%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -2.10% to $91.71 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.65% to a six-month low of $1,891 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -0.49% to $106.13.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +2.52% to $27,024. Ethereum gained +3.36% to $1,651.
Volatility: The Volatility Index fell -4.78% to 17.34.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.577%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
some interesting behavior as we fill the gap from June 8th… pic.twitter.com/QroP3o2lkq
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) September 28, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ian McMillan (@the_chart_life). We’re witnessing the David vs. Goliath of Head & Shoulders patterns right now in the S&P 500. Ian points out that, in the process of filling the gap from June 8th, S&P 500 futures have formed what appears to be a small Head & Shoulders pattern (blue box). This 3-day H&S bottom will attempt to invalidate a much larger, and more obvious 3-month H&S top. A close above 4,350 would confirm a failure of the 3-month H&S top that everyone saw. As mentioned on Monday, failed patterns are often more powerful than successful ones. If David defeats Goliath ($SPX > 4,350), we could see a sharp reaction higher.
Quote of the Day
“More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun.”
– Raymond DeVoe Jr.
Trendlines > Headlines
This week, we sat down with one of the most respected sell-side technicians, John Kolovos, of Macro Risk Advisors. We discuss the outlook for Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and more!
Top Links
A Chart for the Ages – The Irrelevant Investor
Michael Batnick points out that money has continued to flow into Treasury Bonds ETFs despite their abysmal performance.
Why Stocks Should Rally in the Fourth Quarter – Carson Research
With one trading day left in Q3, Ryan Detrick explains why Q4 will likely be stronger.
S&P Tests Key Support – All Star Charts
Alfonso Depablos looks at some key levels in the S&P 500.
ETFs and Markets with Todd Sohn – Strategas
Todd Sohn highlights some key points about the current market environment in this video.
Virtual Chart Summit 2023 – StockMarket TV
Catch up on all of the presentations from Chart Summit 2023.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Mixed/ Risk-On
1. Stocks up
2. Bonds up
3. Oil down
4. Dollar down
5. Stock gains holdYields reversing lower propel stocks up but stock chart-wise there’s reason to think it is just a brief reprieve.
Tend to think S&P and $NDX follow R2K sub-200 DMA still.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) September 28, 2023
Current 3-day set up.
Yes, a 3-WEEK pattern would be better. #patience pic.twitter.com/QyVjOAGskv
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) September 28, 2023
Are we doing this, energy?$XLE pic.twitter.com/tFnKCkXv7l
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) September 28, 2023
$XLU Utilities ETF
largest daily volume since 4/9/20 pic.twitter.com/s12gp7Q8ih
— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) September 28, 2023
Three variables in place for September's monthly close: (I think it's a safe assumption…)
1) September monthly return is red
2) August monthly return is red
3) September monthly close's YTD return is green.The table shows all years that match.
This guarantees nothing,… pic.twitter.com/tk7wCeWxhx
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) September 28, 2023
relative performance of $XLU to $SPY, worst since XLU launched. Current XLU dividend = 3.6%, 2y = 5% pic.twitter.com/Ppcmlinqij
— Danny Kirsch, CFA (@danny_kirsch) September 28, 2023
Is the current drawdown a seasonal correction or something more? SPX 50-day breadth momentum is likely to provide the next clue. The 15% threshold arguably distinguishes bull-market corrections from bear-market regimes. pic.twitter.com/CC0GCJhvBx
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) September 28, 2023
Are Financial Conditions Foreshadowing a Trend Reversal in Stocks?#technicalanalysis #trendfollowing #cmtassociation $SPX pic.twitter.com/nBGfPmuRbd
— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) September 28, 2023
Yields WILL fall again. That's the normal cycle of how this works. The problem is the gray recession shading associated with all the declines – except for one. We're hoping this time will be similar to 1994-95 soft landing.
But, inflation is STILL running hotter now AFTER… pic.twitter.com/V75IglpPSc
— David Settle, CMT (@davidsettle42) September 28, 2023
The amount held in money market funds is reaching new highs almost daily in 2023, the latest figure shows just over $5.9 trillion.
MMFs are expected to see a record-high inflow of $1.5 trillion this year alone, and retail MMFs are exploding (see next tweet). pic.twitter.com/EjeMpFsS1y
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) September 28, 2023
How much time and verbiage was wasted debating “Is this the bottom in bonds?”
A simple lesson:
1. Forget predictions
2. Follow the trend
3. Pay close attention to how price reacts at obvious support and resistance levels
4. Trade accordingly
It doesn't have to be rocket science. pic.twitter.com/buNlonjzj7— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) September 28, 2023
We are so back. $TLT pic.twitter.com/tSpP4GHasD
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) September 28, 2023