The second half of February historically can be troublesome for stocks.
After the great start to this year, some typical seasonal weakness wouldn't be all that surprising. pic.twitter.com/JhtOp39WVi
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 9, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). The S&P 500 had one of its best starts to a year recently, however, the next few weeks could get rocky if history rhymes. February is the second weakest month of the year, and the worst month within the ‘best six months’ (October-April). Ryan points out that February typically starts off strong, only to give back its gains in the second half of the month. On a brighter note, the seasonal trend turns bullish again in mid-March. Also, we’re in the midst of what has historically been the best quarter of the 4-year Presidential Cycle. If history is any guide, we could see some giveback over the next few weeks, but there are a lot of positive seasonal forces at play in the bigger picture. For more on these seasonal trends, check out our latest episode of Trendlines > Headlines, with seasonality expert Jeff Hirsch.