$SPX seasonality over the last 50 years:
(Blue line = 2024 performance; Red line = 50-year average performance)
On average, typically around 2/14 is the seasonal high in the market, followed by a few weeks of drawdowns pic.twitter.com/LGrJmg3Mb4
— Dash, CMT, CFP (@Dash_charts) February 12, 2024
🏆 Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by @Dash_charts.
- The S&P 500 has gained +22% since the Oct. 27th lows and hasn’t even pulled back more than -2% on a closing basis
- The index is well overdue for some sort of pullback, consolidation, or correction, and history suggests it could begin this week.
- Using a 50-year seasonal composite of the S&P 500 (red), Dash points out that the index has historically hit a short-term peak in mid-February before bottoming in mid-March.
The takeaway: The next month has historically been weak, but strength tends to return in April-July… Sell Valentine’s Day, Buy St. Patty’s Day?