One reason for this morning's sharp sell-off is the rise in yields after a breakout — now back at March 2023 highs
After today's ADP report doubled expectations investors are now pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in July
$TNX pic.twitter.com/4i3aCn365M— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) July 6, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Matthew Timpane (@mtimpane). Yields are on the move again, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching four-month highs today. It peaked in October but never really broke down. Instead, it’s spent the past ten months consolidating above the 2018 highs. This consolidation is starting to resemble a base within an uptrend. It still needs to clear resistance from the March highs (4.06%) and the October highs (4.24%). But, if it completes this base, we could see the 10-year yield make a new leg higher in the second half of the year.