Chart of the Day - Friday, March 28, 2025

Patrick Dunuwila
March 28, 2025

Chart of the Day


🏆 Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Steve Deppe (@SJD10304). 
 

  • With one more trading day left in March, the S&P 500 ($SPX) is on track for its worst month since September 2022, dropping -6.3%.
     
  • Steve points out that the index could close below its 12-Month Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since October 2023. It would need to rally at least +1.4% on Monday to reclaim it.
     
  • Like any moving average system, the 12-month SMA can experience whipsaws. The previous 'sell signal' in October 2023 proved to be an excellent buying opportunity. However, adhering to the 12-month SMA has also helped investors avoid some of the most severe drawdowns.
     

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 could close below its 12-month moving average for the first time since October 2023 unless it rallies +1.4% rally on Monday. While the last sell signal failed, trading below this long-term moving average has historically been associated with painful drawdowns.

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