Chart of the Day - Tuesday, April 15, 2025

🏆 Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert). 
 

• The Volatility Index ($VIX) almost closed below 30 today for the first time in two weeks after reaching a five-year high of 52 last Tuesday. It spent most of the day below 30 but closed slightly above. 
   
• Jason points out that when the $VIX has dropped from 50 to 30, it has historically been a 'bear killer.'  This has only happened four times since the $VIX was created (1987, 2002, 2009, and 2020).
   
• While the sample size is too small to be statistically significant, this hasn't been a bearish signal. The following week was a coin flip, with the $SPX higher 50% of the time. However, $SPX was always higher 12 months later, with a median gain of +17.9%.
   

The Takeaway: The $VIX nearly closed below 30 today after reaching a five-year high of 52 last week. While the sample size is limited, this has historically signaled that the worst of the storm has already passed.