Chart of the Day - Monday, April 21, 2025

🏆 Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Steve Deppe (@SJD10304). 
 

• The S&P 500 ($SPX) is down -8.1% in April with seven trading days remaining, putting it on pace for its worst month since September 2022.
   
• Steve points out that when the S&P 500 has fallen -5% or more in April, the rest of the year has historically been challenging. This has happened 13 other times since 1950.
   
• Over the next three months, $SPX was higher just 23% of the time, with an average loss of -4%. One-year returns were only slightly better than a coin toss, with $SPX higher 54% of the time for an average gain of just +3.2%.
   

The Takeaway: When the S&P 500 has dropped -5% or more in April, the remainder of the year has historically leaned bearish.