13 of the 19 key risk ratios now favor the Risk-On asset, up from just nine last month.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
This chart plots 19 different Risk-On vs. Risk-Off ratios, showing where each currently sits within its 52-week range.
The x-axis shows each ratio’s position within its 1-year range (0% = Risk-Off, 100% = Risk-On).
Risk-Off assets are listed on the left, their Risk-On counterparts on the right.
Black diamonds show current levels.
Grey triangles mark where they stood one month ago.
The Takeaway: The weight of evidence has shifted toward Risk-On.
With 13 of the 19 Risk-On/Risk-Off ratios now above the midpoint of their 52-week range — meaning the Risk-On side is leading — and 18 showing upward momentum over the past month, the shift is clear and widespread.
This isn’t just a few speculative names catching a bid. It’s a coordinated rotation across style, sector, asset class, and region.
My canaries in a coal mine just sang loud and clear: all eight of my key risk areas of the market are now trading above their 200-day moving averages.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The chart is divided into eight panels, each tracking the daily price for a different sector or industry group. The red line marks the 200-day moving average in each panel.
The Takeaway: From Semiconductors to Small Caps to Steel — everything is back in gear.
That’s the strongest internal signal we’ve seen all year from this list.
These eight canaries are my market’s warning system.
If something’s breaking beneath the surface, this is where it usually shows up first.
But right now, they’re all flying in formation — above their 200-day moving averages — and pointing to expanding strength, not hidden stress.
Semiconductors are leading with fresh highs. Biotech and Steel are coming off the mat after long slumps. Small Caps and Banks have reclaimed...
There have been 52 consecutive trading days the S&P 500 has closed above its 20-day moving average — just shy of the 53-day streak seen in early 2024 — and one of the most persistent trend runs of the past 25 years.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 daily close, with its 20-day moving average in red.
The black line in the lower panel plots the number of consecutive days the index has closed above its 20-day average.
The Takeaway: Credit to Subu Trade for sparking the deep dive into this.
The 20-day moving average is a simple trend barometer.
When price stays above it, bulls are still in control.
