Today's number is... 50%

Market breadth had been weak... However, it has significantly improved over the last week, with 50% of S&P 500 stocks reaching a 20-day new high.

However, this recent surge in 20-day new highs wasn't quite enough to trigger my favorite breadth thrust regime.

Here’s the chart:

Today's number is... 12.5

The 1-week rate of change in Investors Intelligence bears has spiked to 12.5%.

Here’s the chart:

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Let's break down what it shows:

Today's number is... 3

After 3 years, the Consumer Discretionary versus Consumer Staples ratio has exceeded its previous cycle highs from 2021.

Here’s the chart:

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Let's break down what it shows:

Today's number is... 1

Yesterday, the bulls demonstrated that they are still present, with the S&P 500, 400, and 600 reaching their highest 1-month highs since November.

Here’s the chart:

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Let's break down what it shows:

Today's number is... 16

My Fear or Strength Model has been in bearish mode for the last 16 trading days.

Here’s the chart:

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Let's break down what it shows:

Today's number is... 28.5

Market sentiment is shifting as the average bears reached 28.5 last week, the highest reading since November 2023.

Here’s the chart:

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Today's number is... 19

My RORO Risk Range Summary, which includes 19 Risk-On versus Risk-Off ratios, has shifted to slightly favor risk-off assets.

Here is the chart:

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Let's first break down what the chart shows:

Today's number is... 0.64%

The First Five Days indicator for 2025 showed a positive return of 0.64%. 

Here’s the table:

Here’s a bonus table highlighting all the positive years:

Today's number is... 1.60%

The S&P 500 under the hood is bifurcated!

The average stock in the S&P 500 is only 1.60% above its 200-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

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Today's number is... 100%

Our US Dollar Long Term Percent Bullish breadth reading just reached 100%.

Here’s the chart:

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Let's break down what it shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the US Dollar index.

Today's number is... 4

The S&P 500 index is holding up well as it is only 1.89% below its all-time high; however, when we take a closer look at the individual stocks, we can see that they have begun to dip below 4 key timeframe highs that we have identified as important.

Here’s the chart:

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Today's number is... Q1

After two weeks of enjoying the Australian summer at the beach house, I've returned to my desk! I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas and celebrated the start of the new year with family and friends!

Let's start the year off with some cycle data… 

Stocks historically do not perform well in the first quarter of a post-election year.

Here’s the chart: