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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Indices: Russell 2000 +2.44% | Nasdaq +1.18% | S&P 500 +0.96% | Dow +0.40%
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Industrials led, gaining +1.67%. Consumer Staples lagged, falling -0.19%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell –1.58% to $76.64 per barrel. Gold futures inched lower by -0.14% $2,004 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.14% to $104.71.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +4.27% to a two-year high of $51,844. Ethereum gained +5.15% to a new 52-week high of $2,778.
Volatility: The Volatility Index dropped -9.15% to 14.39.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.259%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The #ValentinesDay Indicator is indeed flashing some GREEN this year.
S&P 500 >4% YTD on this day?
The rest of the year was higher 26 out of 28 times and up 13.3% on avg vs 7.5% for all years.
Also, the last six times all gained 10% or more, with an avg return of nearly 17%. pic.twitter.com/i9qLw2Mizy
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 14, 2024
🏆 Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick).
- The S&P 500 is currently up +4.85% YTD. The next few weeks have historically been bearish. However, in the spirit of Valentine’s Day, Ryan gives the bulls a reason to love this market.
- When the S&P 500 has been up more than +4% by Valentine’s Day, the year has finished positive 93% of the time for an average gain of +13.3%. That’s almost 2x better than the average annual gain of +7.5%.
- “The Valentine’s Day Indicator,” as Ryan calls it, has been even stronger than usual recently. The past six times have all finished up more than +10%, for an impressive average gain of +17%.
The takeaway: The S&P 500 has historically been weak from now until St. Patty’s Day. However, the year has rarely ended lower after such a solid start.
Quote of the Day
“When you feel like bragging,
it’s probably time to sell.”
– John Neff
Top Links
S&P 500 Could Be in for a Disappointing Holiday Week – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines how the S&P 500 and its components have historically fared around President’s Day.
Here’s When You Will Know the Stock Market Has Peaked, According to Fundstrat – Business Insider
Tom Lee shares his thoughts on market sentiment.
The One Level to Track for an Accelerating Dollar – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines the outlook for the US Dollar after its recent bounce.
A Full Deck for Bitcoin – Bespoke
Bespoke looks at Bitcoin sentiment.
Treasury Bond Yields Reverse Higher Off Key Fibonacci Level! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble breaks down the recent rebound in Treasury yields.
Top Tweets
Through the first 30 trading days of 2024, the S&P 500 had 12 closing 52-week highs- the most since 2018. https://t.co/Vxk0eip96F pic.twitter.com/yFpgXVHsZx
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) February 14, 2024
The S&P 500 $SPX is on pace for the fifth highest daily close of all-time, up +4.7% over the past thirty trading days, and is only +0.8% away from the highest daily close of all-time. pic.twitter.com/zXXkoe3XSV
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) February 14, 2024
New ATHs today: $XLI (industrials) and $IYT (transports). For $IYT, its the first ATH in 2 yrs pic.twitter.com/dyVLREPilN
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) February 14, 2024
It's like yesterday's "panic" never even happened…
Small Cap ETF $IWM still looks constructive on the daily. https://t.co/BQuNqcyofN pic.twitter.com/o6T1bid902
— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades) February 14, 2024
Over the next month, the Volatility Index (VIX) has averaged a sharp rise amidst one of the weakest two-week spans for stocks during the year. https://t.co/J21V0Jxir2 $SPX $VIX pic.twitter.com/9v2ycxi2V7
— Equity Clock (@EquityClock) February 15, 2024
You've seen me post about "lift and separate." Well, this is the drop and flop. pic.twitter.com/0HHrjnzJfJ
— Jim Carroll (@vixologist) February 14, 2024
$UBER continues to do all the right things. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi @dkhos has proven to be one of the best operators out there.
UBER Announces Inaugural $7 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization pic.twitter.com/UfEgz8vM2A
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) February 14, 2024
Do you guys think that Apple still matters? Or no, just ignore it? pic.twitter.com/uekI6WsgNc
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) February 14, 2024
With a $1.82 trillion market cap, Nvidia passed Google today to become the 3rd largest US company.
Nvidia TTM revenues $NVDA: $45 billion
Google TTM revenues $AMZN: $307 billion pic.twitter.com/NbTDMtqi3A— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 14, 2024
$SMCI from $307 to $886 in 19 sessions.
Up 15 of the last 17 days. pic.twitter.com/KlPMxdcKeu
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) February 14, 2024
The Only #Bitcoin Chart You'll Ever Need™
We're still tracking the historical cycle to a "T", and we're not even in the 1.5-year bullish post-halving "Green Zone" pic.twitter.com/JUtF3w2zKI
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) February 14, 2024
Everyday it gets closer to being free.#natgas pic.twitter.com/65YVbqgnlV
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) February 14, 2024