Chart of the Day - Wednesday, February 14, 2024

🏆 Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick).

• The S&P 500 is currently up +4.85% YTD. The next few weeks have historically been bearish. However, in the spirit of Valentine’s Day, Ryan gives the bulls a reason to love this market.

• When the S&P 500 has been up more than +4% by Valentine’s Day, the year has finished positive 93% of the time for an average gain of +13.3%. That’s almost 2x better than the average annual gain of +7.5%.

• “The Valentine’s Day Indicator,” as Ryan calls it, has been even stronger than usual recently. The past six times have all finished up more than +10%, for an impressive average gain of +17%.

The takeaway: The S&P 500 has historically been weak from now until St. Patty’s Day. However, the year has rarely ended lower after such a solid start.