Today's number is... -2.3%

The average stock in the S&P 500 has dropped by -2.3% year-to-date.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The gray bar illustrates the average stock in the S&P 500 year-to-date return.
• The green and red bars represent the average year-to-date stock returns by sector for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: In just 14 trading days, the S&P 500 has declined by 9.31% from its all-time highs and is now down 5.26% year-to-date. Along with this correction, the average stock in the S&P 500 is currently showing a negative year-to-date return - which is down -2.3%.

Given the recent increase in market volatility, there are still pockets of strength, with 217 stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index with a positive return year-to-date.

However, most of these outperforming stocks come from sectors typically categorized as defensive. These defensive sectors are where money rotates into when stocks are under...

Today's number is... 5,667

The Bears have made a significant move, pushing the S&P 500 below the key level of 5,667, which is the highs from July 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel is the Momentum Regime (Daily RSI).
  • In a bullish regime, the RSI often exceeds 70 during rallies and finds support around 35-40 during corrections. In a bearish regime, it drops below 30 during sell-offs and doesn't reach overbought levels in counter-trend rallies.

The Takeaway: Over the past few months, I've been sharing my bull market checklist, emphasizing the importance of the 5,667 level in the S&P 500 for the bullish trend. However, after yesterday's trading, the bears have pushed the S&P 500 below this key level. 

Not only was this price level breached, but the S&P 500 also fell below its 200-day moving average, and the momentum shifted to a bearish regime...

Today's number is... 81%

Global breadth continues to expand, particularly within Developed Markets, as 81% of the 22 developed markets I track are now above their 200-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the developed markets index.
• The black line in the lower panel shows the percentage of developed markets above their 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: At present, 81% of developed markets are trading above their 200-day moving average, the highest level we have seen this year. This is particularly significant given the ongoing selling pressure in the S&P 500, which has just recorded its third consecutive week of declines.

US investors have benefited from their tendency to favor domestic markets over the past decade. However, this trend could be on the verge of changing, with the relative strength of US markets diminishing while Europe and other developed markets are beginning to take the lead. This might be the moment...

Today's number is... 5%

The S&P 500 has now experienced a 5% correction.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray bars in the second panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 5% correction.
• The yellow bars in the third panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 10% correction.
• The red bars in the fourth panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 20% correction.

The Takeaway: As of yesterday, the S&P 500 has pulled back 6.6%. It took 142 trading days for the S&P 500 to experience a 5% correction, which last occurred in August 2024.

So, what’s next? A 10% correction would bring the S&P 500 down to 5,529. It has been 337 trading days since we last witnessed a 10% correction. This level would essentially return the S&P 500 to where it was at the time of the last 5% correction.

Next is the possibility of a 20% correction, which would bring the S...

Today's number is... 5

The S&P 500 has experienced five consecutive days of moves exceeding +1% or -1%.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the middle panel indicates consecutive days when the S&P 500 experienced a daily movement of +1% or -1%.
• The red line in the bottom panel is the S&P 500’s 52-week drawdown.
• The vertical gray lines indicate consecutive days when the S&P 500 experienced a daily movement of +1% or -1% is greater than 5.

The Takeaway: We have experienced five consecutive days of 1% movements, either up or down, in the S&P 500. This marks the longest period of market volatility since August of last year. 

During this current period of volatility, we have seen a consistent trend of more stocks reaching new lows than new highs, alongside a significant rise in bearish market sentiment.

As shown in the chart, these volatile...

Today's number is... 10%

Over 10% of stocks on the NYSE+NASDAQ are making new lows.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of NYSE+NASDAQ 52-week new highs minus new lows.

The Takeaway: We have a saying here at All Star Charts… The stock market can only decline with an expansion in the new lows list, it's simple math… and you know what… The number of stocks making new lows is higher than the number of stocks making new highs.

Yesterday, among the 7,422 stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ, 997 made new 52-week lows, while only 101 achieved new 52-week highs.

That's 11.8% relative to new highs and over 13% new lows on an absolute basis.

...

Today's number is... 2021

My Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio has sharply declined recently and returned to levels when the ratio peaked and fell into a consolidation period back in 2021.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio.
  • The Risk-On components consist of Copper (HG1), High Yield Bonds (JNK), Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD), Semiconductors (SOXX/SPY) & High Beta (SPHB/SPY).
  • The Risk-Off components consist of Gold (GC1), US Treasury Bonds (TLT), Yen (JPYUSD), Utilities (XLU/SPY) & Staples (XLP/SPY).

The Takeaway: Investors are experiencing fear and pessimism, as bearish sentiment dominates the surveys. The US market is beginning to mirror this mood, showing a preference for a Risk-Off environment. This is reflected in my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio, which has returned to a key level of importance where we saw NYSE breadth reach its peak in 2021.

Will this resistance level, which has turned into support, continue to act as support, or will this ratio...

Today's number is... 2

We are now two months into 2025, and we are closely following the same path of the average post election cycle. What's next?

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line represents the average return in post election years since 1950 for the S&P 500.
• The red line represents the S&P 500 in 2025.

The Takeaway: In the first two months of the year, the S&P 500 has followed its typical pattern for the post-election cycle.

Up in January.

Down in February.

If stocks continue to follow this seasonal trend, we may have seen the bottom for the market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see stocks rip higher into the end of the year, given that the average post election cycle is now transitioning into a tailwind for stocks.

However, if we start to see weakness during what is typically a strong seasonal period for stocks, that would pique my interest much more. For now, stocks are simply following their usual seasonal tendencies. 

What are your...

Today's number is... 20%

The percentage of stocks down 20% or more are expanding across all S&P market caps.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks (Large Cap) that have declined by 20% or more.
• The red line indicates the percentage of S&P 400 stocks (Mid Cap) that have fallen by 20% or more.
• The gray line shows the percentage of S&P 600 stocks (Small Cap) that have experienced a decline of 20% or more.

The Takeaway: A decline of 20% or more is typically considered the threshold for defining a "bear market" While this method isn't perfect, it's a nice round number that often brings the price of the stock down to levels that you never thought you would see again.

When we look beneath the surface using a 20% or more decline as our criteria, we can see that these breadth readings are expanding across all market caps. 

More than half of the S&P 600...

Today's number is... -0.50

My Risk-On/Risk-Off indicator has declined sharply and is now at -0.50, firmly re-entering Risk-Off territory.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel is our custom indicator, which comprises 20 Intermarket ratios that pair various risk-on and risk-off assets.
  • Green is a bullish environment, and red is a bearish environment.

The Takeaway: This indicator has been fluctuating between Risk-On and Risk-Off modes for most of the year. However, over the past week, it has sharply declined and moved well and truly back into Risk-Off territory. This downward pressure indicates a change in the market environment, suggesting that the focus has shifted from opportunity to risk.

Moving forward, I will be monitoring to see if this recent weakness sticks around to determine if we experience further downside...

Today's number is... 3

The relative ratio of the Consumer Staples versus the S&P 500 has reached a new three-month high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of S&P 500 Consumer Staples versus S&P 500 Index.
• The green and red lines in the bottom panel represent the 14-period daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the ratio above. When the line is green it indicates that the ratio is in a bullish regime, while when the line is red it signifies a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: When I’m looking for evidence that market participants are taking defensive positions, the ratio of Consumer Staples to the S&P 500 offers valuable insight.

And right now, I am seeing some of that defensive rotation.

The landscape for one of my favorite risk-on/risk-off ratios has changed considerably. Let me break it down! 

- It has broken out of a short-term bearish-to-...

Today's number is... 55%

Only 55% of S&P 500 stocks are in strong uptrends.  

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks with a 50-day moving average greater than its 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: In a healthy bull market, the 50-day and 200-day averages typically move in the same direction, with the 50-day average positioned above the 200-day average. 

Looking beneath the surface, only 55% of S&P 500 stocks show strong upward trends. The trend of this breadth indicator has been declining throughout this year and has now fallen back to levels seen at the beginning of 2024. This suggests that there is an underlying weakness in the market, which could pose further downside price action at an index level if the bulls do not address this issue.

Small cracks can also be seen at the index level. Although the S&P 500'...