Today's number is... 535

“It’s a bull market, you know.” - @OptionsSean

This bull market has been ongoing for 535 trading days to date.

Here is a bar chart displaying all S&P 500 bull markets since 1950:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what this chart shows:

• The blue bars represent the percentage change of each bull market. 
• The red dots represent the total number of trading days for each bull market. 
• The blue horizontal dashed line indicates the average percentage...

Today's number is... 387

As we approach the final month of 2024, we have seen an impressive number of stocks perform well, with 387 stocks showing positive returns year-to-date so far.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The dark blue bars represent the year-to-date returns of each S&P 500 stock.

The light blue bar indicates the average year-to-date return of S&P 500 stocks.

The yellow bar represents the S&P 500 year-to-date return.

The Takeaway: Bears have been claiming that market breadth has been narrow throughout 2024. That is simply incorrect! Market breadth has been and continues to be strong in 2024. The data supports this.

A total of 387 stocks have posted positive returns this year, with 184 of those stocks outperforming the S&P 500. In contrast, only 118 stocks have posted negative returns during the same period. 

The S&P 500 has gained 26% year-to-date,...

Today's number is... 22.8%

Yesterday, the S&P 500 reached another all-time high. 

So far in 2024, the index has spent 22.8% of its trading days at record highs.

This is the kind of data we expect to see in a bull market!

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The blue bars represent the percentage of time the S&P 500 has spent at all-time highs each year.

The Takeaway: Looking back at history, when the stock market hits all-time highs, it often goes on to reach even more all-time highs.

With the S&P 500 achieving yet another all-time high, it’s clear that 2024 is shaping up to be an impressive year, bringing the total number of highs to 52.

As of now, the index has achieved all-time highs 22.8% of the time, making it the sixth highest year on record, with one month still remaining. - The best years on record were 1954 and 1995, each achieving a high of 30.6%.

Additionally...

Today's number is... six

With only a few days left in November, let’s dive into some S&P 500 December seasonality. 

When looking back over the last six elections, December has shown a positive return. Will this trend continue in 2024?

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The green bars indicate a positive return for December in an election year.

The red bars indicate a negative return for December in an election year.

The Takeaway: Stocks often perform well as the year comes to a close, and it wouldn't be surprising if buying pressure continues for the remainder of the year.

Since 1952, the S&P 500 has experienced positive returns in 15 out of the 18 Decembers during an election year.

That’s 83% of the time! - The highest reading of any month.

Zooming in on the past two decades, the last six elections have all resulted in positive returns in December.

On average, December during an...

Today's number is... 0.8

The bears have fumbled the ball once again.

The most recent flare-up of new lows we experienced from the other week has already disappeared, and it appears that they are retreating into hibernation once again, as only 0.8% of S&P 500 stocks are at 1-month lows.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.

The black line at the bottom represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 1-month lows.

The Takeaway: Over the past two years, we have seen deterioration in the new lows list characterized by lower highs, while the S&P 500 index keeps posting higher highs and higher lows in price. This is exactly what you expect to see during a bull market.

With only 0.8% of S&P 500 stocks hitting 1-month lows, it is virtually impossible to enter a bear market or experience a significant correction without the presence of new...

Today's number is... 11

All 11 S&P 500 sectors are back in an uptrend.

I define an uptrend as when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. 

It's a simple and straightforward approach.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.

The black line at the bottom represents the number of S&P 500 sectors with a 50-day moving average greater than its 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: In a healthy bull market, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages typically move in the same direction, with the 50-day moving average positioned above the 200-day moving average.

This week, the energy sector signaled a golden crossover (when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average). This development has brought all 11 S&P 500 sectors back into uptrend mode. Signaling a continuation of the healthy participation...

Today's number is... 17

The BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread is at a 17-year low, a level not seen since before the GFC market crash.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

• The blue line shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line represents the BofA US High Yield Option Adjusted Spread.

The Takeaway: A rise in high-yield spreads indicates increasing volatility and stress, reflecting a Risk-Off market behavior. Conversely, a decline in high-yield spreads suggests that investors are confident and actively seeking risk, indicating a Risk-On market behavior.

Currently, We are at 17-year lows in this spread. If the bond market isn't experiencing stress, then why should we be concerned? After all, the bond market is one of the largest in the world. If there were real stress in the market, it would likely be reflected in credit.

At this moment, credit spreads are sending a clear message: Relax...

Today's number is... 21

Our US dollar Advance-Decline line just closed at 21-year highs.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the US dollar index.
• The black line in the bottom panel represents the US dollar Advance-Decline line, which is comprised of 23 key currency pairs.

The Takeaway: The US dollar has been ripping higher over the past month, and when we look beneath the surface, we see healthy breadth readings and confirmation of strength as our US dollar Advance-Decline line has reached its highest level in 21 years.

Typically, a strengthening US dollar would indicate that risk assets like stocks are facing challenges, given the broad intermarket implications of the US dollar. 

However, it appears that stock market bulls remain unfazed by the strengthening dollar. Perhaps a weaker dollar isn't essential for stocks to continue their rally - at...

Today's number is... 16

On Friday, we saw the S&P 500 closed down 1.3%. This marks the 16th time this year that the index has declined by 1% or more in a single day.

Here's the data:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

The first column represents the year, while each subsequent column indicates the number of large down days for that year, ranging by declines of 1%, 2%, and 3% or more and total count.

The Takeaway: Although experiencing 16 declines of 1% or more might seem significant, it is actually below the historical average. Since 1950, the average year typically experiences about 25 such declines. During 2024, most of the 16 days with a 1% or more market decline occurred amid a short-term market pullback.

On average, each year tends to have 3 to 4 pullbacks of 5% or more, and in 2024, we have only seen two pullbacks of this size.

Therefore, a similar-sized pullback at this point would be completely normal and wouldn’t be surprising at all.  ...