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(Commodities Weekly) Who Let The Cows Out? 🐂

May 2, 2025

After a decade of going nowhere, livestock futures are showing signs of life.

While other commodities have recently stolen the spotlight, the livestock space has quietly been forming some of the most powerful bases in the commodities market.

Now we’re seeing breakouts across the board - from Live Cattle to Feeder Cattle, and potentially Lean Hogs next.

Let’s walk through the setup...

Our ASC Livestock Index has broken out above a major shelf of resistance 📈 

This equal-weight basket of Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs spent over a decade carving out a massive base, testing the 2014 highs multiple times before finally clearing the level.

That’s the principle of polarity in action: what was once resistance is now support.

With bulls back in control, we’re targeting the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 221. That's almost 25% more upside from the current price!

It’s time to stop fading strength and start riding the uptrend in livestock.

Is it time for Lean Hogs to catch up? 🐷 

Lean Hogs futures are lagging, but maybe not for long.

Prices are pushing against a major downtrend line...

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[Gold Rush] Gold’s Getting Crowded 🪙

April 28, 2025

Do you remember when The Economist magazine cover had a rocket ship covered in United States dollars last year?

They said the United States was "The envy of the world."

It was so cringe...

The dollar got blasted over the next several months, and the U.S. stock market had its worst quarter in decades relative to the rest of the world.

Like any other type of market analysis, fading magazine covers is more of an art than a science.

We don't want to fade a trend just because there's a magazine cover.

The dollar was extremely overbought in the prior example, and the COT positioning tipped us off to a potential move in the opposite direction.

We waited for the market to confirm our bias, managed our risk, and made a ton of money.

Fast forward to today, and the latest Barron's magazine cover highlighted a stack of Gold bars and said:

"Investors are loading up on the metal as a haven in chaotic times. How long can it last?"

 

This comes as Gold futures are running into...

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Bond Report: The Fed Isn’t Driving. It’s Getting Dragged.

April 27, 2025

The Fed doesn’t set the tone. It reacts to it.
 Always has. Always will.

This week, Waller gave the usual hint:
 "A serious drop in the job market could prompt more cuts, sooner."

Translation? The Fed knows it's behind. The bond market figured it out months ago.

The real story is written in the chart.
 The 2 Year Treasury Yield is the market’s forward looking Fed whisperer.
 Every cycle, the 2 year tops first. Every cycle, the Effective Federal Funds Rate follows like a lost puppy.

 
  • When the 2 year peaks and rolls, the Fed has no choice but to cut.
  • Markets aren’t asking politely for cuts — they’re already forcing them.

Right now, the  2 year is falling hard. That isn't a forecast.
 It’s the bond market screaming: "You're done here."

It’s not about what Powell...