This week I've seen a chart of High Yield relative to Investment Grade Bonds floating around with various conclusions, but I wanted to use this to highlight some things to consider when using Bond ETFs as a proxy for what's happening in the market it's meant to track.
Here is the video from my BNN Bloomberg interview this week. They asked me if I thought the media was making too big of a deal out of an inversion of the yield curve and I agreed that of course they did. That's what the media does, irresponsibly exaggerate things that don't need to be exaggerated at the expense of their audience. I'm happy to come on TV to bring some sense of reality to the conversation. Someone has to. In this video we discuss the ongoing Cyclical Bear Market in stocks and what we're waiting for to confirm that a new Cyclical Bull is getting started.
What is the best chart in the world right now? I don't know. I guess that really depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance and overall market goals. These are different for all of us.
Today, I want to share what I think are collectively the 120 best charts. The way I see, there is no ONE chart that can tell today's story. But as a unit, these 120 slides give us a good look at the current market environment.
Todd Sohn is one of my favorite guys to talk to about the markets. He often sends me charts that no one else is looking at and points out important data that most people aren't talking about. His unique perspective on the market definitely makes him stand out from the rest. Todd and his team at Strategas do great work and it's a real pleasure to have him on the podcast. In this conversation we discuss the current environment for US Stocks, Interest Rates, Precious Metals and the sentiment driving current trends. He offers good advice for both new technicians and seasoned veterans. If you're at all interested in the market, this is an episode you can't miss. Enjoy!
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about the underperformance of European Stocks and the fact that it's their weighting in Financials that is, in part, dragging them lower. This has really become an interest rate story as Financials around the world are keeping other countries' markets from breaking out. The overwhelming exposure to Technology continues to keep the US winning relative to everyone else.
Wednesday morning I outlined the charts we were watching ahead of the Fed Decision and what we would need to see before getting out of the way and reevaluating our bullish Equities and US Interest Rates thesis.
Today I want to look at those same charts and note what's changed and how we're moving forward.
Today will be a "big" day for markets as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on the new target Federal Funds Rate.
Currently, markets are pricing in a roughly 80% chance of a 25bp cut and a 20% chance of a 50bp cut. This means market participants have assigned 0% odds to rates remaining where they are after today's meeting.
We've been pretty clear over the last few months about where we stand regarding the different asset classes, so there's not much left to do other than wait and see how prices settle by the end of the week.
With that said, here are a few charts we're watching through Friday's close.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the Intermarket Relationships that help identify the next direction for US Interest Rates. These assets include Regional Bank Stocks, Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Copper, Gold and TIPS among others. Which way are Rates heading next?
When going through my chartbooks this weekend one chart stood out to me, highlighting a theme we've been pointing out to our Institutional Clients that's worth mentioning again.