Fed rate cut probabilities are shrinking fast. Just a few months ago, the market was pricing in over 100bps between the 2 year and the Fed funds rate. 

A weaker dollar will drive Bitcoin, gold and silver higher.

The Greenback often dips toward year-end. It’s the usual seasonal pattern.

And this price behavior is even more pronounced in election years. 

You're overthinking the whole dollar and oil connection. 

As a trader, I love finding intermarket relationships to guide the way I look at markets. While those links matter, I have to remember that they aren’t set in stone. They change as the world changes. 

War and energy production can really shake up these correlations.

In early 2022, the correlation between the dollar and oil hit a 20-year high.