From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are taking a hit.

The major equity indexes are seeing red. Crude oil is slipping below eighty bucks. And Gold is failing at new all-time highs.

Perhaps the markets are navigating the summertime blues – a tune base and industrial metal investors have been humming for months.

Today’s analyst meeting was one broken record after another as we ripped through the most important charts on the market.

Not a top, never hit oversold…

Not a top, never hit oversold…

There’s a raging bull market on Wall Street right now. 

But the fun and games will come to a screeching halt if the following chart rolls over.

Forget about the selloff in Bitcoin for a minute.

Coal stocks are ripping!

Perhaps they’re giving back some recent gains today, but most stocks are.

More importantly, Monday marked the largest one-day rate-of-change for our Coal Index since 2020…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Our cotton and sugar trades are working. Coffee is raring to go.

And crude oil is pushing toward a solid first-half finish.

Beyond that, commodities are dribbling lower.

Let’s review an energy contract that broke out two months ago and has never looked back—Natty Gas!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Cattle futures are defying gravity.

Unlike most commodities during this cycle (pick your favorite base metal or grain contract), cattle have yet to correct lower. 

Instead, they’re still hanging around new all-time highs.

Something has to give…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m avoiding the US dollar and interest rate chopfest.

That includes interest rate-sensitive commodities like crude, copper, and gold.

So, let’s check in with a commodity group that walks to the beat of its own drum…

The New York City Softs: Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, and Sugar.

First up, Cocoa. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Copper Springs into Action… Buyers Dig Copper… Copper, F%$# Yeah!

Those are a few titles I spitballed last night. But the markets wouldn’t have it.

This morning, the overall theme of the metals space turned on its head, trashing my bullish bias.

To be clear, I still have a favorable outlook for base and precious metals over longer time frames…

Yet we’re all forced to navigate the near-term selling pressure. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metal and mining stocks are hanging tough.

Sure, miners aren’t flashing an overwhelming number of new highs, but they’re also not registering an alarming number of new lows.

That’s impressive, especially considering Copper’s epic false start.

While many precious and base metal stocks consolidate, let’s review the next group of mining names before they rip…

Check out the Junior Uranium Miners ETF $URNJ versus the Uranium Miners ETF $URNM:

Despite the significant overlap between these two ETFs, I view a breakout in the URNJ-to-URNM ratio as a clear risk-on signal (much like the relative strength displayed by junior gold miners). 

The top four URNJ holdings – accounting for approximately 60% of the ETF – also belong to URNM. In comparison, those same four stocks combine for just 28% of URNM.

URNM also includes the $24B uranium bellwether Cameco Corp. $CCJ (a 17% weighting) and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Don’t let a few days of selling pressure fool you.

Despite intense gold, copper, and crude oil pullbacks, many commodity-related assets are flashing buy signals.

For instance…

The Global Carbon ETF $KRBN:

KRBN holds a basket of European and U.S. carbon allowance futures – also known as carbon credits. Companies use these credits to offset the costs of releasing greenhouse gases.

Interestingly, the similarities between the carbon allowances, copper versus gold, and silver versus gold charts are uncanny. All three are violating multi-year downtrend lines, suggesting bullish trend reversals and a risk-on market environment.

We like KRBN long above 35, targeting 56.

That’s it for today. We’ll be back with more next week.

Thanks for reading.

Premium members, be sure to check out the Commodity Trade of the Week below.

Trade of the Week

Today, we’re outlining Nutrien $NTR, a $30B Canadian agricultural inputs company:

Nutrien recently broke a multi-year downtrend line at a crucial polarity level going back to the IPO. 

We’...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold did its part earlier in the spring, paving the way for the rest of the metals space.

Now, silver is posting fresh decade highs, uranium names are triggering buy signals, and Dr. Copper is slicing through overhead supply. 

Plus, increasing copper demand has caught the smart money offside.

Check out copper futures with the Commitment of Traders profile in the lower pane:

Fading commercial (smart money) positioning tends to produce pain. 

But even the strongest hands can find themselves on the wrong side of a trade. It happened to commercial hedgers back in 2020, and it’s happening again today.

Copper experienced an explosive rally, adding a dollar-fifty as surging demand forced strong hands to unwind their shorts in 2020 and 2021.

If Gold is heading to 5K, Copper is making its way to eight bucks – but first, it must exceed our rough initial target of 5.95.  

Here’s a closer look at copper’s multi-year base breakout:

Dr. Copper is blowing through those former highs from 2021 and 2022 in a similar fashion to the 2020 rip-roaring rally....

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Crude oil is searching for a foothold. Copper is climbing. And Gold is clinging to its record high.

Like most of the market, raw materials are weathering the storm with varying degrees of success.

Nevertheless, today’s commodity deck includes plenty of uplifting charts – plus a trade you’ll want to take home over the weekend…

Check out the Water Resources ETF $PHO posting a new all-time high:

JC discussed PHO at the start of 2022 during a Live Strategy Session.

We’ve all navigated twists and turns, picking up our fair share of gray hair. Two years later, PHO is finally moving higher.

These updated levels place the Water Resources ETF roughly 4% above our buy signal. I like raising the entry point to 65 and the target to 90. 

According to Edwards and Magee’s 3% rule (price closing 3% above a defined risk level), PHO has posted a valid breakout. 

All aboard! 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The talking heads are about to call the top in commodities.

It’s coming, so we might as well prepare. 

In fact, it’ll only get louder if the US dollar follows crude’s lead…

Crude oil and the dollar have traded in sync for a few years now (mainly due to the strong positive correlation between the buck and interest rates).

During Q3 of last year, the energy sector rallied with the US dollar while most of the market fell under pressure. 

This relationship has been so strong we actually like swapping bonds for energy stocks in the new sixty-forty portfolio.

But crude oil, interest rates, and the US dollar have rallied for almost four straight months. 

They’re all due for a correction.

Here’s crude oil leading the way, violating a multi-month trendline:

If the dollar tracks lower here, sellers will likely trounce black gold. Energy stocks will follow.

Ding-dong, inflation is dead! 

Which...