From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

First, gold failed to hold its breakout to new all-time highs.

Then, the silver-to-gold ratio undercut a critical shelf of former lows.

Now, the Gold Miners ETF $GDX is printing a new all-time low versus the broader market!

Is there any sane reason to bet on the miners right now?

Let’s take a look…

Check out GDX relative to the S&P 500 ETF $SPY: 

If precious metals are in a bull market, the stocks that benefit the most in that environment are not making new all-time relative lows versus the broader market.

And if the new all-time relative low isn’t enough, the components of the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index cover it:

Only one – Eldorado Gold $EGO – out of the 30 stocks in the index did not print a fresh four-week low last week.

Ugly!

Yet plenty of gold mining stocks continue to carve out bullish reversal formations despite the broad near-term weakness.

Orla Mining $ORLA stands out:

ORLA is forming a potential inverted head and shoulder pattern as the 14-day RSI posts a bullish divergence.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar is marching higher, stomping gold mining stocks into dust.

Harmony $HMY, Kinross $KGC, and Eldorado Gold $EGO are hovering just above last month’s breakout levels.

And Franco Nevada $FNV –  a secular leader among royalty companies – is sliding toward fresh multi-year lows!

Check out FNV undercutting a shelf of former lows:

I’m not crazy about shorting it. But you can’t own FNV below its 2022 lows at approximately 110.

The path of least resistance points toward 80 if it trades below those former lows.

A Franco-Nevada breakdown shines an unfavorable light on the current condition of the precious metals space. But FNV is taking a different course than most royalty companies.

Here’s a performance chart of FNV, Royal Gold $RGLD, Osisko Gold Royalties $OR, and the SPDR Gold Trust ETF $GLD since last March:

The returns carry less significance here than the divergence beginning last fall.

OR, RGLD, and GLD bottomed last October (when the US dollar peaked – not a coincidence) while FNV continued to fall.

I have no idea what’s going on at FNV....

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

A risk-off tone is blanketing the precious metal space as a key data point suggests more pain ahead…

Silver is underperforming gold.

Check out silver undercutting a shelf of former lows relative to gold:

The breakdown signals a lack of interest or risk-seeking behavior in the higher-beta vehicle.

When silver fails to catch a relative bid, the entire precious metals space tends to follow. 

Last month’s breakout in the Silver Miners ETF $SIL is failing to hold:

It’s simple: We can’t carry a long SIL position if it trades below 28.

These stocks will eventually resolve higher. But sellers have the upper hand for now.

The Gold Miners ETF $GDX is also sliding:

The 30 level remains our line in the sand. I don’t want anything to do with GDX below that level. 

It’s hard to imagine gold futures decisively breaking to new all-time highs while GDX trades below its former 2016 high.  

The same analysis applies to the MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF $RING:

The next secular bull run for gold mining stocks remains on hold...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The first day of trading is full of uncertainty and excitement. 

Aren’t they all!

Yet the new year brings one promise: events that have yet to come.

As corny as it sounds, it’s true.

Sure, precious metal bulls see new all-time highs for gold on the horizon.

I’m right there with them.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves on day one.

Instead, let’s start the year with a long-term chart of gold…

Here’s a monthly candlestick chart zoomed out roughly 30 years:

The main takeaway to start the year: Gold has yet to break out. 

Yes, gold recently hit a new all-time high. But it will remain a range-bound mess until buyers absorb supply at approximately 2,100. 

We can talk about gold 2,500 or 3,250 once it clears that critical supply zone.

Meanwhile, silver mining stocks are showing strength. 

The Silver Miners ETF $SIL is struggling to hold last week’s breakout as the US dollar bounces off a former support level.

We can expect near-term weakness for precious metals when the USD catches a bid, especially the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The buzz around gold’s new all-time high is growing – and for good reason.

New all-time highs will likely become a regular occurrence in the coming quarters. 

But while gold makes headlines, my attention is on silver mining stocks…

Check out the Silver Miners ETF $SIL carving out a potential double bottom:

SIL is printing fresh six-month highs as it trades back above its June peak.

I consider it a breakout.

Completing this near-term base will likely catapult these stocks through the polarity zone and the double bottom breakout level. 

I like SIL long – only if it’s above 28 – targeting 40 in the coming quarters.

Perhaps the upside objective sounds a bit overzealous.

But when we zoom out, it’s clear that SIL has serious ground to cover before reaching those former 2020 highs:

In fact, the 55 level marks a logical target for a longer-term position. 

Consider it our secondary target. If gold is bouncing to a steady beat of new all-time highs, SIL is running back to that decade-long resistance zone.

It’s the perfect environment for...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’ve had palladium on my mind for a while – long before gold posted a new all-time high.

Why palladium?

It all started with an extreme Commitment of Traders (COT) profile…

Check out the longer-term chart of palladium futures with the COT in the lower pane:

Commercial hedgers posted a new record-long position back in April.

Notice the sustained trends following similar commercial positions in 2012, 2016, and 2018. 

Commercials represent the strongest hands with the deepest pockets. Plus, they have inside knowledge of the supply and demand dynamics of the market in question. It’s OK to think of them as “smart money.” 

But record-long positioning isn’t a signal on its own. It doesn’t help us define our risk. It simply indicates the market structure.

Case in point: Record-breaking long positioning became the norm for commercials as price continued to fall throughout the year.

Holding a long position since the spring required deep pockets and proved a painful opportunity cost.

But the pain of owning palladium is likely behind us as long as the futures...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last week’s fresh all-time highs left many gold bugs empty-hearted. 

The market continues to torment precious metal bulls as they wonder what could have been.

But hopes and dreams aren’t a viable strategy.

The only “what if” that concerns me is whether the yellow metal flashed a failed breakout.

Or are we simply dealing with a a premature move?

Let’s dig in…

Check out the weekly chart of gold futures, highlighting the breakout in question:

Bulls sliced through overhead supply, vaulting gold to new heights. But the bearish momentum divergence in the lower pane reveals a lack of fervor for the shiny yellow rock.

Divergences between momentum and price don’t guarantee a major reversal.

Gold can still break out as momentum divergences have a way of righting themselves. That’s why I prefer to focus on momentum regimes. They’re just more reliable.

From a structural perspective, the real nail in the coffin for gold lies just below the right shoulder trough at approximately 1,820. A decisive close below that level completes a failed inverted head-and-...

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

We’ve been all over this one.

Two weeks ago, we couldn’t help but discuss the impressive move out of the silver/gold ratio, pointing to risk appetite in the precious metals space.

Now, gold’s crazy little cousin is pressing up against new 52-week highs.

Just check out the chart of BlackRock’s Silver ETF $SLV rallying into this key inflection point near 23:

Not only does this level coincide with the 52-week highs proceeding a seven-month consolidation, it also represents the 62% Fibonacci retracement of this three-year range.

Make no bones about it, this is a critical level we’re watching in silver right now.

Should we see buyers continue to push the metal higher above this level, it would confirm a breakout.

Above 23.10, we like SLV long with a target at the former highs of 27.40.

But it doesn’t just stop there; let’s plan ahead into the future.

With gold again flirting with all-time highs, we’re on the cusp of a new bull market in precious metals.

In a world where silver goes on to hit our initial target of 27.40, we’ll like the setup even more than we do...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Mining stocks are breaking out.

All four names we outlined in last week’s Gold Rush Video have triggered buy signals.

The tide appears to swing in favor of the gold bugs.

And, based on Monday’s bullish price action, perhaps it’s just the beginning.

Check out the next gold miner most likely to break loose…

Eldorado Gold $EGO is carving out a classic inverted head-and-shoulders pattern:

Risk is well-defined at the neckline, highlighted by a series of former highs.

This former resistance level reveals a significant supply zone that’s capped higher prices and subdued overzealous gold bugs since early 2021.

But that all changes on a break to new multi-year highs.

I’m long EGO on a daily close above 12.25, with an initial target of 16.50 and a secondary objective just beyond the next extension level at approximately 25.

I adjusted my longer-term aim based on the critical polarity zone coinciding with the 2016 peak:

The difference between the two levels is negligible. And I want to give precious metal mining stocks plenty of room to run.

Gold...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The wait is over.

Goldbugs, rejoice.

Silver has finally found its dancing shoes!

Will it stop there? No one knows. 

But, based on last week’s price action, gold’s crazy cousin may have slipped into party mode…

Check out silver bouncing higher relative to gold:

The entire precious metals space – and interested bystanders worldwide – have eagerly awaited such a display of relative strength.

Why?

Silver outperforming gold indicates a burgeoning risk appetite for these neglected rocks. Precious metals of all colors and densities benefit from increased flows into silver-related assets.

It’s a risk-on gauge for precious metals. Now, the question turns to whether gold will complement silver’s advance.

Both metals were higher Tuesday, as gold nears a critical shelf of former highs at approximately 2,016:

That’s our level.

The path of least resistance points toward the former all-time highs if and when gold breaks above the October peak.

It remains a sideways mess until a decisive upside resolution.

Yes, goldbugs have plenty to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Miami is pure gold.

It sways to its own beat, enticing and intoxicating even the insular traveler.

Incidentally, I was engulfed by the city’s rhythm as I attended a family wedding last weekend.

And it was wild!

I danced with family and friends and sipped bubbles at sunset in Key Biscayne straight through to the early morning hours along South Beach.

But this old dog would never have made it to dawn without my wife’s crazy cousins. 

They displayed an appetite for reckless abandon that gold longs to witness from its own crazy cousin…

Silver!

Gold wants to party like a rock star until the wee hours as it twists and turns toward a new all-time high.

Unfortunately, silver doesn’t want to dance.

Check out gold futures overlaid with the silver-to-gold ratio:

The silver-to-gold ratio can’t find its feet. Instead, it remains glued to a shelf of former lows.

Silver needs to make its way to the dance floor if gold has any chance of reaching a new high. But silver must not only participate, it must take the lead.

Money flows to the riskier areas of...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals bulls have plenty to be excited about.

Major headwinds have abated as rallies cool in real yields and the dollar.

Gold futures are trading above their former commodity supercycle peak.

And the yellow metal is printing new all-time highs priced in every significant currency except the US dollar.

Even mining stock stocks are breaking out!

Check out Alamos Gold $AGI ripping to a new five-month high:

AGI has been on my radar since January. It provided an excellent trade during the spring.

Now, Alamos is flashing another buy signal, reclaiming a critical shelf of former highs outlined last month. 

I like AGI long toward 20 provided it’s trading above 13.

AGI isn’t the only mining stock rewarding buyers right now. It’s just one of the strongest – buy the strongest, sell the weakest.

We’ve also discussed Sandstorm Gold $SAND and Kincross Gold $KGC. Both trades are shaping up well.

SAND is holding above our risk level, while KGC hit a new 52-week high last Friday (I still need to see a decisive close above 5.75 before buying KGC).

...