Crude oil is setting up for a big move, and almost nobody is paying attention. In fact, sentiment in the energy trade couldn’t be more bearish right now. Everyone hates it, everyone. 

As Strazza said on our call yesterday, “Even Warren Buffett is losing money on this one.” That’s the vibe.

XLE keeps dropping, the bearish sentiment intensifies, yet producers are stepping in and buying. That’s a bullish signal if I’ve ever seen one.

There are plenty of reasons to start liking energy here, especially when headlines like these are flying under the radar of most U.S. investors. 

Sure, this crisis might trigger a short term pop, but I’m not in it for a flash move, I’m looking for a trend. 

And the pieces for a sustainable breakout are falling into place.

Let’s talk about seasonality. Most people think energy’s best season is summer. Makes sense, right? But the data tells a different story. Energy peaks in the summer, then drifts into bearish seasonals, until now.

The sweet spot for energy? It’s right...

The market just had a stress test, and gold passed it.

Now, what's next?

We've been monitoring the strength of the United States dollar, which has added to the selling pressure on gold. 

First, check out how helpful this intermarket relationship has been recently:

Mr. Market keeps sending us inflationary signals. Have you noticed?

Last Friday, we talked about cattle futures potentially leading bond yields higher. 

Boy, was that the case this week as bond yields soared on the heels of an FOMC meeting.

We've also talked about a rotation into the energy sector, which has been in the penalty box for most of this bull market.

While this hasn't happened at an index level yet, there have been pockets of strength, like uranium and...

Newmont Mining has been a bellwether of the gold mining industry for decades, producing thousands of ounces yearly.

It's also the largest component in the gold miner ETFs like GDX and RING. As Ron Burgundy said, "I don't know how to put this, but I'm kind of a big deal."

Over time, the company has been mismanaged and desperately needs a makeover. 

Just look at Newmont Mining flirting with new all-time lows relative to gold:

President-elect Donald Trump rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange this week, and it was reminiscent of the times when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush went to the NYSE years ago.

The infamous Reagan quote, "We're going to turn the bull loose," immediately came to mind.

Considering that, it seems appropriate to talk about bulls today because of their positive correlation to economic growth.

Live cattle futures and bond yields have danced together for decades:

As you can see, cattle futures and bond yields are structurally similar but sometimes diverge from one another. In the lower pane, we've included the 200-day rolling correlation to highlight the past (and current) divergences in price.

The biggest problem with correlation analysis is that it doesn't tell us which direction the lines will likely go next.

However, the primary trends have been higher since the 2020 low, and the odds favor that the primary uptrends will eventually reassert themselves.

And we think that's currently underway, with live cattle futures closing this week at the highest price in history.

We've been...

Several months ago, we discussed the blowout momentum readings for the junior gold and silver miners.

These momentum thrusts often initiate the beginning of significant trend reversals, not the end.

Since then, the price action has been lackluster. However, our technical analysis suggests that the bulls are on the cusp of stepping in and resuming the primary uptrend.

Let's delve into the charts and how we plan to profit from them.

Silver Miners $SIL are printing fresh 52-week highs relative to silver futures:

The New York Stock Exchange held its annual Tree Lighting Event this week. It was spectacular, as always.

But we're not here to talk about pine trees or LED lights. We're here to talk about commodities.

The NYSE has an array of vehicles to trade, most being equities.

They also have several commodity funds, which happen to offer asymmetric risk versus reward opportunities at current levels. Let's talk about them.

Our first setup is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund $DBA:

The top five holdings are cocoa (14.8%), coffee (13%), live cattle (11.9%), sugar (11.6%), and corn (11.4%), several of which we've recently discussed.

As you can...

Since gold futures hit our second target, the entire complex has undergone a corrective wave. 

While the market hasn't given us the all-clear signal yet, the correction seems closer to the end than the beginning.

Demand for gold worldwide continues to increase, and our intermarket analysis suggests the party is just starting for gold bugs across the galaxy. 

Moreover, our COT sentiment indicator is flashing a buy signal:

My cousin wasn't asking me about crypto during this year's Thanksgiving feast. 

Instead, he wanted to know which commodity to buy after the historic cocoa trade.

Without hesitation, I told him, "coffee."

And I really believe that!

Let's talk about why.

Our Soft Commodity Index is testing a critical level of interest:

The index peaked and rolled over in 2011 and has carved out a massive basing pattern in the years since then. If and when the bulls resolve this pattern, we want to be long.

On a relative basis, soft commodities are printing fresh 52-week highs versus the broader commodity complex. This is precisely what we're looking for in a leadership group, and we expect this outperformance to continue for the foreseeable future.

Cocoa futures recently resolved a 45-year base and put the bears in a dirt nap, and we think coffee futures are up next:

As you can see, coffee is at its highest level since it peaked in 1977, following a face-ripping 600% rally in two years.

A close above 340 would mark the end of a nearly 50-year consolidation and the beginning of a new uptrend. 

And we suspect...

*BREAKING NEWS* $BTC printing fresh all-time highs priced in every fiat currency is NOT bearish for gold.

We recently recorded a video with our in-house crypto analyst, Louis Sykes, to discuss the connections between bitcoin and gold. 

The relationship isn't perfect, but it would be irresponsible of us as investors to ignore the correlation between 2 of the most significant hard-money assets in the world.

Last month, we discussed the correlation between digital and physical gold becoming positive again. 

Before we knew it, $BTC had resolved its base and followed gold to new all-time highs.

This suggests to us the bull market is still young:

Last week, we identified a bullish momentum divergence in the commodities versus stocks ratio at a shelf of former lows.

The evidence suggests we're on the verge of a new era of commodity outperformance.

If we're right, it's time to prepare a list of our favorite setups to seize this opportunity.

We've already covered promising setups in uranium and solar.

Now, let's focus on oil and gas, and here's why:

First, crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline have been consolidating above a shelf of former highs for more than two years, and the risk is skewed in favor of the bulls.

Until the bears can resolve these consolidations to the downside, we want to continue betting these levels hold as support.

...

Gold futures have been down in 6 out of the last 8 sessions since the winner of the U.S. Presidential Election was announced.

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been adding fuel to the selling pressure as it has screamed higher toward the upper bound of a multi-year range.

However, the dollar is entering one of its weakest seasonal periods of the year and should start serving as a tailwind for our shiny rocks.

And if the dollar is about to roll over, our equal-weight basket of precious metal stocks will likely resolve its multi-decade base and make new all-time highs: