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It's Just A Trade: Letters & Math

December 30, 2020

I took a few days off over the holidays. I couldn't tell you the last time I went that long without a chart or a tweet. It felt good.

But you know what felt even better? Getting back to those charts and digging in on what's been going on around the world. It's not work for me. I mean it is, technically. But as you probably already figured out, this is something I really enjoy doing.

So what stood out the most upon my return?

I think it's got to be the victory laps from the bitcoiners on tilt. They're acting like they've never gotten a trade right in their lives. And that's dangerous.

Sure, we're happy bitcoin is doing well. It's already up 35-40% since our latest entry point a few weeks ago. That's great. And remember, this is after it doubled immediately after our last buy point this summer.

Things Investors Don't Buy In Bear Markets

December 20, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Last week's Mystery Chart was the Uranium ETF $URA zoomed all the way out to its inception and inverted.

I really hate to do that to you guys, but someone actually guessed it!

More importantly, though, most of you were selling the chart... so buying the Uranium ETF. Yes, you heard that right... buying Uranium.

In this post, we analyze a handful of other rarely covered and lesser-known risk-assets - but first, let's look at Uranium.

The Next Targets For Bitcoin

December 16, 2020

Remember 3 years ago when Bitcoin was the talk of the town and everyone wanted in? Well, by then anyone who wanted to buy it had already done so. Bitcoin went on to lose over 80% of its value over the next 12 months. That's how bubbles end. An instant classic.

Now, as we've learned, newer markets in their infancy stages tend to have faster and more frequent cycles. When you go back and study the US Stock Market in the 1800s, for example, there was a "Panic" every other year. It was the wild west back then.

Welcome to the 21st Century's version of the wild west. Cycles happen faster. Bubbles collapsing take less time to reset and begin a new leg higher. I think this is something we should continue to expect in the Crytpo space.

Here we are just 3 years after the bubble peaked, working on a fresh breakout and new leg higher. To put things in perspective, Financials are still down from their peak in 2007, over 13 years later. Technology took 18 years to finally surpass its 2000 bubble peak. And Japan is working on over 30 years so far and still 45% away from its 1989 bubble highs.

[Video] Small-caps, Germany & Which Rocks To Own

December 9, 2020

This week, Julie and I talk about some of the things that stood out the most on last week's Monthly Chart Review.

Among them were the Market Capitalization rotation into Small & Mid-caps and out of those Mega-cap stocks.

Germany and Japan making new highs leading the international charge higher.

And which rocks would we rather own: Precious Metals or Base Metals?

Check it out:

This Is What Overwhelming Supply Looks Like

December 9, 2020

I don't want to keep talking about the same asset, you guys know we pride ourselves in looking for opportunities all over the world and across asset classes. But this Bitcoin scenario right now presents us with the perfect opportunity to explain what overwhelming amount of supply looks like. So bear with me, no pun intended (ok maybe a little).

Our upside objectives in Gold and Bitcoin were both hit recently. They were the former highs from 2011 and 2017, respectively. We discussed this in our Greater Fool discussion.

But WHY were those our targets? WHY were we, and still are, so focused on those former highs?

The reason is because it is a FACT, that last time Bitcoin was up here just under 20,000 there was more selling pressure than buying pressure. There was more supply than demand. This isn't like "JC's Opinion", or the opinion of my team. These are just facts. Bull or bear, bitcoin cult leader or not, you can't disagree there. Last time prices were up here, they fell. And they fell hard.

[Video] Big Trends Monthly w/ Josh Brown - EP.5

December 3, 2020

Every month we get a fresh batch of Monthly Candlesticks. It only happens 12 times a year.

I promise you guys from the bottom of my heart that there is no other part of my entire process that provides as much value and information as my monthly chart review. Premium Members can access the Chartbook here. Stay tuned as we'll be adding more workbooks of charts this week to the Chartbook section.

In the meantime, my friend Josh Brown and I have been doing these short monthly videos since the summer. They're fun and I like how he pushes back against me sometimes. In other interviews they make it too easy on me. I like these!

This month we talk about the breakout in Biotech, Market-cap rotation into Small-caps, European Stocks performing well and what we're doing about Gold & Bitcoin.

Here's this month's video in full:

Betting On A Greater Fool: Bitcoin & Gold Edition

December 1, 2020

Today a conversation came up about whether Gold is an "investment" but Bitcoin is just "Speculation".

Come on...

Let's be serious. One is a useless rock and the other is an almost useless currency. Both of these are speculations. Both of these can be considered "investments". But the only reason to buy either of these is because you think someone else will pay you more for it in the future.

If you don't think a greater fool will pay you more down the road, there's no reason to own either of them.

On another note, the behavior we're seeing in both of these is eerily similar. Keep in mind, since earlier this year we were bullish on both of them, betting that Bitcoin and Gold would trade much higher. Our targets? The former all-time highs: Gold's 2011 peak and Bitcoin's 2017 peak.

Mission accomplished. Great trades! Since then, they're someone else's problem.

Look at both of these and tell me they're not behaving exactly the same. Granted, on different time horizons, but as they say, "The markets are fractal", meaning that you'll see the same behavior patterns across timeframes.

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[Premium] The Gold Report: Everything Metals, Mining Stocks & Bitcoin

November 27, 2020

Here's the latest Gold Report. In this 35-page PDF, you'll find:

  • Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium Charts
  • Intermarket Analysis with Precious Metals
  • Charts of Gold & Silver Mining Stocks
  • Currencies and their impact on Precious Metals
  • Comparisons between Precious & Base Metals
  • Bitcoin - Where do we go now?
  • Comparing the Gold and Bitcoin tops